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After the craziness that was UFC 264, things slow down for the world’s biggest MMA promotion with a smaller show this weekend – UFC Vegas 31: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises.
UFC Vegas 31 doesn’t have much depth, but the presence of one of the UFC lightweight division’s top prospects – as well as former UFC bantamweight champ Miesha Tate – should make it watchable.
So with that considered, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 31: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises.
#4. UFC lightweight division: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises
To say this is a bit of a confusing main event would be an understatement. While he hasn’t yet earned the notoriety of his teammate and friend Khabib Nurmagomedov, it’s quite clear that at this point, Islam Makhachev might be the best prospect in the UFC lightweight division.
The dangerous Russian holds a UFC record of 8-1 and hasn’t lost a fight since 2015. After his most recent win – a whitewashing of Drew Dober – most fans expected him to be put up against a top ten fighter next time around.
Instead, he’s been matched with Thiago Moises who, despite being a highly skilled fighter, simply isn’t that much of a step up for Makhachev.
A grappler by trade with a decent if understated striking game, Moises has been in the UFC since 2018. He lost his debut fight to Beneil Dariush, but since then he’s gone 4-1 and is now riding a three-fight winning streak.
Essentially though, this fight is a horrible stylistic match for the Brazilian. Moises is undoubtedly a dangerous, skilled grappler who holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu – something he demonstrated brilliantly with his Achilles lock win over Michael Johnson.
However, quite how he expects to take Makhachev down is anyone’s guess. With Khabib now retired, it’s probably fair to suggest that the Russian is the strongest wrestler in the division. Not only does he land 69% of his takedown attempts, but he also holds a takedown defense rate of 93%.
Moises might hope to have more success standing – after all, he largely outstruck Alexander Hernandez and showed a lot of improvement in that fight.
The issue with that idea, though, is that Makhachev is an excellent striker in his own right who holds knockout power in his punches – just ask Gleison Tibau – even if they’re slightly wild at times.
Add in the fact that Makhachev should be able to take Moises down at will if he needs to, and it all adds up to a tricky night for the Brazilian.
Can Moises find a way to win? It’s impossible to write any fighter off at the UFC level, and Moises is definitely legit. However, in terms of a style match, this might be the hardest for him in the entire division.
With that in mind, the prediction is Makhachev via TKO, and hopefully the UFC can find him a higher-ranked opponent next time out.
The Pick: Makhachev via third round TKO
#3. UFC bantamweight division: Miesha Tate vs. Marion Reneau
The UFC is never a forgiving place, particularly for fighters who return to the octagon after a lengthy retirement. They never seem to find their groove in the same way that they once did.
We’ve seen the likes of Carlos Condit, Alexander Gustafsson and Matt Brown all struggle after returning. Now, it’s the turn of former UFC bantamweight champ Miesha Tate.
‘Cupcake’ retired back in 2016 after losses to Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington. After five years away, she’s now back – so can she make an impact or will she struggle?
There are a few things that give Tate a decent chance of succeeding here. Firstly, she never really looked past her prime in 2016. Sure, Nunes throttled her, but Nunes destroys everyone – there’s certainly no shame in a loss to her.
And while she lost to Pennington, the fight wasn’t straightforward for ‘Rocky’, who largely grinded a win out. If anything, Tate likely hung her gloves up because she’d reached the top of the mountain, been knocked off, and, well, what else is there to prove?
Judging by recent photos of her in training, ‘Cupcake’ is still in phenomenal shape. At the age of 34, she shouldn’t be too past her athletic prime to make good on this comeback.
The UFC have also been kind to her by matching her with Reneau, a fighter who has struggled mightily in recent years.
‘The Belizean Bruiser’ has been in the UFC for six years, but she hasn’t tasted victory since her February 2018 win over Sara McMann. Since then, she’s lost four straight fights, most recently falling to Macy Chiasson in March.
Reneau is a solid fighter with a high level of athleticism, but she doesn’t outright shine in any area, and her age – she’s now 44 – means that she’s likely to be slowing down very soon, if she hasn’t already.
If Tate comes into this fight looking flat and showing the cage rust that you’d expect after five years away, then Reneau can win. However, it just seems very doubtful given her recent record.
At the end of the day, even if Tate isn’t in her prime any more, she’s still a better wrestler and she’s still got a great, somewhat underrated boxing game and an excellent gas tank. Could her return turn into disaster? Definitely, but it’s doubtful that it’ll happen in this fight.
The Pick: Tate via unanimous decision
#2. UFC Vegas 31: The Main Card
UFC Vegas 31 has a further three fights scheduled for its main card. In a lightweight bout, the always-controversial Jeremy Stephens faces Mateusz Gamrot.
It’s been over a year now since Stephens last fought – that’s because a weigh-in shove caused an injury to opponent Drakkar Klose, canceling a planned fight for April. ‘Lil Heathen’ is still a dangerous power puncher, but recently his form has been terrible. In fact, he hasn’t won since his February 2018 win over Josh Emmett.
Gamrot, meanwhile, has looked excellent since arriving in the UFC in 2020. He came up short in his debut against Guram Kutateladze, but it was a fantastic back-and-forth fight, and most recently he sparked out Scott Holtzman.
Based on Gamrot’s dangerous skills and the fact that Stephens appears to be aging and slowing down at this point, ‘Gamer’ by decision is the pick.
In a middleweight bout, Dustin Stoltzfus takes on Rodolfo Vieira. This is an interesting clash as Vieira is coming off one of the biggest upsets in some time. He suffered a stunning submission loss to Anthony Rodriguez after gassing out, which was embarrassing considering his grappling credentials.
Essentially, Vieira looks so heavily muscled that he needs to win early if he’s going to win at all. Thankfully for ‘The Black Belt Hunter’, this looks like a favorable match. Stoltzfus appears to be largely a grappler and struggled for traction in his UFC debut against Kyle Daukaus. Therefore, Vieira via submission is the pick.
Finally, a bantamweight fight sees Gabriel Benitez take on Billy Quarantillo. This one should be exciting as both men come to throw down, so expect a potential ‘Fight of the Night’ contender. Both men have well-rounded, solid skills, but Quarantillo seems slightly more durable and tough, so a decision victory seems likely for him.
#1. UFC Vegas 31: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC bantamweight division: Khalid Taha vs. Sergey Morozov
UFC flyweight division: Francisco Figueiredo vs. Malcolm Gordon
UFC bantamweight division: Cameron Else vs. Aaron Phillips
UFC bantamweight division: Miles Johns vs. Anderson dos Santos
UFC strawweight division: Amanda Lemos vs. Montserrat Ruiz
UFC heavyweight division: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Alan Baudot
UFC welterweight division: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Preston Parsons
