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This Saturday, UFC 279 will take place with Nate Diaz crossing paths with Khamzat Chimaev in the headline bout.
The matchup is regarded by experts, fans and even other UFC fighters as a lopsided mismatch in Chimaev's favor. Diaz's struggles against committed wrestlers are well-known. The Stockton legend fights from a traditional boxing stance with most of his weight loaded onto his lead leg, overexposing it to single-leg takedowns.
Khamzat Chimaev, by contrast, is a pressure-based wrestler who fights on the front-foot, relentlessly pursuing takedowns. Many expect 'Borz' to replicate the dominant performances that Rory MacDonald and Rafael dos Anjos enjoyed against Nate Diaz when both men overpowered the one-time UFC title challenger with their wrestling skills.
While Chimaev will likely taste victory this Saturday, there are things Nate Diaz can do to render the bout as difficult as possible for his foe.
Based on the technical differences and stylistic nuances of both fighters, this list aims to outline 5 things that Nate Diaz needs to do against Khamzat Chimaev to trouble 'Borz' as much as he can.
#5. Nate Diaz must use his counter-straight left
There is no denying that Khamzat Chimaev is a naturally gifted striker, least of all due to his pugilistic acumen existing despite his lifelong training as a wrestler. The undefeated Chechen phenom is blessed with monstrous knockout power that he magnifies by maximizing his hip rotation whenever he throws punches.
Furthermore, Chimaev often keeps his lead foot on the outside of his opponent's, aligning his foe's chin with his powerful right hook, which 'Borz' throws closer to his chest to render it a straighter punch than most hooks.
However, Chimaev's preferred punching style means he does not move his head off the center-line. Additionally, in order to land a hook, a fighter must be within range of his opponent's punch, rendering the surging welterweight vulnerable to counters.
This lines up well with Nate Diaz's brand of counterpunching. Khamzat Chimaev is taller than Diaz by 2 inches, undercutting the Stockton legend's negligible 1-inch reach advantage. While Diaz fights long, Chimaev fights from a much tighter stance that does not make use of his reach. Often-times, Nate Diaz uses his jab to draw out his opponent's counter with the intention of countering their counter. Against Gilbert Burns, 'Borz' unveiled a risky habit.
The Chechen phenom was overzealous in his attempts to return fire after being hit. Diaz typically uses his jab to dupe his foes into trying to counter him over the top with looping punches. He can snipe at Chimaev with a jab to draw out his opponent's counter-right hook, causing the Chechen to unknowingly bring himself into range as he leans away. Diaz can then counter Chimaev's counter-right hook with a straight left as he did when countering Leon Edwards' counter-right hook.
#4. Threaten armbars from the bottom
Saturday's bout will almost certainly find its way to the mat. Khamzat Chimaev is a dominant wrestler, while Nate Diaz has famously struggled to stop dominant wrestlers from dragging him to the ground.
However, at UFC 273, fight fans noticed a curious change in Chimaev's approach to his matchup with Gilbert Burns. Initially, 'Borz' was content to pursue takedowns and wrestle his Brazilian foe to impose his will.
However, as Chimaev himself later confirmed in the post-fight press conference, an armbar attempt by Burns from the bottom in the 1st round was a strong enough deterrence. Thus, for the remainder of the bout, Chimaev sought no more takedowns due to his dislike for the way in which 'Durinho' briefly hyperextended his arm. Given Chimaev's own words, taking Nate Diaz to the mat might prove riskier than he expects.
Nate Diaz's last submission win was his rear-naked choke against Conor McGregor in their initial matchup 6 years ago. Regardless, he frequently uses his open guard to threaten his opponents with armbars whenever they posture up, creating space to drive their hips into their ground-and-pound strikes.
As Khamzat Chimaev is an aggressive finisher who pounces on any opening, any stray arm during a ground-and-pound sequence runs the risk of exposing him to armbar attempts. One or two strong armbar attempts should be enough to dissuade the Chechen contender from consistently pursuing takedowns against Diaz, as was the case in his matchup with Gilbert Burns.
#3. He must extend the bout
Khamzat Chimaev is yet to fight for more than 3 rounds inside the octagon. Prior to his matchup with Gilbert Burns, the surging welterweight had defeated all his foes in either the 1st or 2nd round. Against 'Durinho', Chimaev's high-energy style unveiled its own drawbacks when he began to fade at some point in the 2nd round. By the 3rd round, his cardio was failing him as he gasped for air in search of a second wind.
With an unproven gas tank that seems to wilt after 3 rounds, Chimaev might be more vulnerable than fans expect if he is unable to finish Diaz in the 1st round or at the very least the early stages of the 2nd round. While there's a prevailing misconception about Nate Diaz's cardio among the MMA fanbase, the Stockton legend is not a veteran of 5-round fights nor is he a fighter known for defeating his foes in the championship rounds.
In 33 MMA fights, Diaz has fought in 5-round bouts a total of 3 times, losing to Benson Henderson, Conor McGregor and Leon Edwards. However, Nate Diaz remains a highly efficient fighter who has worn his opponents out by exhausting them. A triathlete who almost never tires, Diaz will be better served if he forces Chimaev to expend his energy in their upcoming matchup.
Specifically, Diaz can force his undefeated foe to miss. Chimaev throws every punch with fight-ending intentions, but missing power-strikes is exhausting, especially when one does not use their reach and height advantages. With a possible cardio issue, 'Borz' will tire much quicker if Diaz causes him to fall short on his hooks by pulling away and rolling as he often does.
#2. Fight on the front foot
Pressure fighters are not used to fighting on the backfoot. Conor McGregor's first losses to Nate Diaz and Dustin Poirier are evidence of that. Tony Ferguson's brutal loss to Justin Gaethje is yet more proof of this simple truth. Most pressure fighters are ill-equipped to deal with an opponent who does not yield and instead forces them to retreat. Khamzat Chimaev revealed a glimpse of this tendency against Gilbert Burns.
While 'Borz' throws his right hook closer to his chest on a more linear trajectory, it still falls short of the reach that his rarely used jab possesses. This means that Chimaev's punching mechanics are built for pressure fighting. He will not have the intercepting jab needed to fight on the backfoot, least of all to build his counters off of.
Nate Diaz can do as he did to Conor McGregor. He can raise his guard high, tuck his chin and march forward.
He'll have to be wary of Chimaev throwing a wider hook and clipping him behind the ear. However, since the undefeated welterweight typically throws his hooks straighter, Diaz will likely be able to absorb the blow on the forehead instead, as he did when he faced McGregor. If he has to be hit somewhere when coming forward, the forehead is ideal compared to the chin or sides of the head.
This way, he can crowd Chimaev's space and force his opponent onto the backfoot without worrying about takedowns due to having used his armbar as a deterrence. Given the Chechen phenom's apparent cardio issues, forcing him to constantly move backwards will tire him even more.
#1. Knees and uppercuts in the clinch
Nate Diaz must do more than threaten with submissions to frustrate Chimaev's attempts at grappling.
Using armbars to hyperextend his opponent's arms from the bottom should frighten him based on what 'Borz' himself said about his experience grappling with Gilbert Burns. However, Nate Diaz must consistently present challenges in every wrestling and grappling sequence to force his foe to expend more energy than he hopes to.
One of Khamzat Chimaev's preferred areas of engagement is the clinch. He is a bodylock specialist who often digs for underhooks and uses his significant strength and size advantage to secure enough leverage for a takedown. Strangely, despite Diaz's own deficiencies as a wrestler, he has evolved into a competent clinch fighter, famously using it to defeat former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis.
In the clinch, Nate Diaz is quick to shove the top of his head against his opponent's chin, breaking their posture before slamming knees and uppercuts to the head and body.
Against Chimaev, he must focus on punishing the Chechen's body to sap him of his limited cardio. He might not be consistently successful, but he must force Chimaev to work more than he expects to so that if at any point he's being outstruck, 'Borz' will think twice about wrestling him, leaving him in no man's land.
