Islam Makhachev has relinquished his UFC lightweight title, which will be officially up for grabs at UFC 317 when Ilia Topuria faces Charles Oliveira for it. The Dagestani fighter has his sights set on a bigger prize: the welterweight belt. However, it won't be so easily claimed.
To distinguish himself as a two-division champion, he must defeat Jack Della Maddalena, who is riding an 18-fight win streak. If Makhachev wins, then he begins a new reign in a different division. But, what if Makhachev loses? Where does he go from there?
Islam Makhachev's do-or-die predicament
Islam Makhachev is the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world and has victories over some of MMA's greatest fighters, like Alexander Volkanovski and Charles Oliveira. However, Jack Della Maddalena is a different beast entirely, and Makhachev won't have much of a physical advantage over the Australian.
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Belal Muhammad is among the strongest welterweights in the world, and even he couldn't outmuscle Della Maddalena at UFC 315. Furthermore, 'JMD's' takedown defense and scrambling ability could render him surprisingly difficult for Makhachev to pin and control on the mat.
More importantly, Makhachev isn't a pressure fighter. He stands at range and retreats in straight lines to exit boxing exchanges. This would be ill-advised against Della Maddalena, who thrives when given the time and space to box comfortably. Pressure is his greatest adversary.
There's also the wisdom of both Craig Jones and a man who has shared the cage twice with Makhachev in Volkanovski. They will arm Della Maddalena with everything they've learned about the Dagestani wrestler, so the possibility of a Makhachev loss is strong. So, if he loses, what would be his next step?
A return to lightweight is almost certainly out of the question. Makhachev is a massive lightweight, and has struggled with making weight. At 33 years old, a return to lightweight after committing to a proper welterweight build would cripple him more than ever. He likely won't be able to make the weight anymore.
Alternatively, he'd have to devote most of his training camp to weight-cutting and compromise on sparring, training, and gameplanning. His other choice would be to stay at welterweight. An immediate title rematch would be out of the question for a fighter with zero accomplishments at 170 pounds.
However, he could entertain high-profile matchups with Colby Covington, who trash-talked him in the past. Other thrilling bouts with Ian Machado Garry, Shavkat Rakhmonov, and Sean Brady are also options, and if Makhachev wins, he could earn another crack at championship gold.