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Conor McGregor was Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s last opponent in his professional boxing career. Since then, the all-time defensive boxing great has retired, taking part in exhibition bouts that draw upon his massive star power.
McGregor, meanwhile, made his inevitable return to MMA, losing to heated rival Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 before claiming a dominant victory over MMA legend Donald Cerrone. He has since twice lost Dustin Poirier.
Sidelined by an injury suffered in his last bout with Poirier, the Irishman has had a range of potential foes for his return fight. Michael Chandler called for a matchup with the former lightweight champion after his emphatic knockout win over Tony Ferguson, and Charles Oliveira has repeatedly expressed his interest in a money-making fight with McGregor.
What many might not be considering, however, is that 'The Notorious' might not take part in an MMA fight for his return bout. In the past, the Irishman has made it known that he's desperate to rematch Floyd Mayweather. Despite UFC President Dana White's disinterest in another boxing venture, both Mayweather and McGregor have shown their recent desire to recreate the magic from their first matchup.
Unfortunately, a second fight between the two will, as did the first one, end with a Floyd Mayweather victory. This list outlines five reasons why.
#5. Floyd Mayweather's answer to McGregor's distance management
As a counter-striker, Conor McGregor fights from a specific distance that aids both his defensive and offensive striking. By standing about a half-inch beyond his opponent's punching range, 'The Notorious' can easily hop backwards when his foes swing, causing their punches to fall just short before he hops back in with a thunderous counter-punch.
He's used this to great success in his MMA bouts, but against Floyd Mayweather, he encountered a disruptive presence.
'Money' was quick to realize his opponent's strategy, immediately tucking his chin and throwing up a high guard before marching his opponent down. By fearlessly coming forward behind his high guard, Floyd Mayweather shortened the Irishman's preferred counter-punching distance, forcing his foe to retreat in an effort to reestablish that specific distance.
However, as Mayweather walked him down without any reservations, it forced McGregor into a situation where he was constantly having to reset his distance, which both disrupted his counter-punching and exhausted him.
Furthermore, since boxing features larger gloves, the high guard is even more effective. 'The Notorious' was unable to slip 'Money's precise punches through the small gaps that exist when using MMA gloves.
#4. The absence of kicks
The importance of kicks to Conor McGregor's striking game is often understated. They're an integral part of his pressure-based counter-striking approach to fighting.
The Irishman often uses the threat of punishing front kicks to the midsection and a left high kick as deterrences for opponents who try closing the distance against him. This is what enables McGregor to keep many of his opponents at the end of his preferred counter-striking distance and, in turn, create openings for his most punishing punches.
This causes his opponents to grow more anxious as the fight proceeds, convincing them to quickly close the distance before the Irishman can throw kicks. Typically, this manifests as his opponents lunging at him, which is exactly what the former lightweight champion wants: to force his opponents into rushing recklessly into his counter-punches.
However, in a boxing match with Floyd Mayweather, Conor McGregor will not have the use of his kicks, meaning he has one less tool to deter Floyd Mayweather from simply walking him down.
#3. The different rule-set limits McGregor's punching power
Much has been made about how Conor McGregor's punching power doesn't seem to be as significant at lightweight as it was at featherweight. While the Irishman remains fairly powerful, the boxing rule-set has a clear impact on his punching power.
With the exception of his win over Donald Cerrone, McGregor's most damaging punches are created by situations only allowed by MMA. He forces his opponents into lunging forward by causing them to misinterpret how they should cross distance due to the threat of his kicks.
In addition, 'The Notorious' also slips dangerous punches through the gaps in his opponent's guard, a tactic that only works when the gloves are small enough for those gaps to exist.
Additionally, McGregor often uses pressure to crowd his foes. He sandwiches them between himself and the cage, using a left wheel kick to trap any foe who attempts to circle out of his right side, ultimately causing them to lash out and lunge forward to create space for themselves.
Floyd Mayweather, a calculated defensive boxer, does not lunge towards his opponents. In a boxing match, McGregor will have no kicks and thus no means of keeping Floyd Mayweather trapped between him and the ropes.
#2. Mayweather dictated McGregor's reactions
A large portion of MMA fans chalked up Floyd Mayweather's victory over McGregor to the Irishman's well-known cardio deficiency. While the cardio issues that have plagued 'The Notorious' for most of his career did indeed play a role in his loss to 'Money', the strategic masterclass that Mayweather employed cannot be discounted.
In the UFC, McGregor is often the one dictating his opponent's reactions. He uses kicks, distance, pressure and non-committal strikes under a mirage of volume to dupe his foes into rushing forward into his counter-punches.
He forces his opponents into a purely reactive mindset. When a foe jabs at him, it's merely so McGregor can rock them with a pull-counter. When McGregor boxed Mayweather, however, the tables were turned. Mayweather often feinted and faked punches as he advanced, drawing out the Irishman's counter-punches, only for 'Money' to counter the counter-punch.
By turning his foe's counters into reactions to his traps, Mayweather was able to stun McGregor with punches when the Irishman believed he was the one on the counter. Knockouts typically occur when fighters are attacked in positions they did not expect to be hit in—thus, it is no coincidence that Floyd Mayweather's most damaging blows came as he toyed with his opponent's built-in reactions.
#1. Mayweather's defensive boxing
When Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor first locked horns, fans were not given the usual 'Money' experience. Instead of turning the matchup into a defensive boxing affair, the all-time boxing great opted for a more entertaining approach.
Even with Mayweather deviating from his usual strategy, the undefeated boxer's breadth of knowledge in the sweet science was enough to earn him the victory over McGregor. Should Floyd Mayweather use his defensive boxing in a rematch, his performance will be a true shutout.
One of the reasons why McGregor struggled against Dustin Poirier in both of their rematches was due to Poirier's defensive striking. Specifically, the Louisiana native combined his Philly Shell with his counter-punching.
It allowed him to stand right in front of McGregor at punching range while moving his head and shoulder-rolling, causing the Irishman's punches to glance off his shoulders, elbows and forehead. Mayweather landed a counter every time his foe leaned too forward, which 'The Notorious' often does.
McGregor will often lean his torso so far forward that his shoulders are past his hips. While it allows him to add extra inches of reach to his punches, it causes him to lead with his chin, and due to Poirier's defensive boxing skills, he was able to stun McGregor with check hooks every time the Irishman leaned too far forward.
Floyd Mayweather, who is a significantly better counter-puncher than Poirier with a better Philly Shell and superior footwork, can truly punish McGregor for leaning forward if he opts for his more traditional, defensive approach.
