#2 The conditions - Temperature and Altitude
Yes, mercury levels do play a part in England’s chances.
The England team plays its best while playing under moderate temperature as it is in England. A 5-degree celsius rise in the temperature decreases the England’s winning chances by 59%!
Contrastingly, Brazil’s temperature is generally higher than in England thereby considerably reducing England’s chances in Brazil.
Coming to another geographic factor – Altitude. When the altitude is below 500 m above mean sea level, England are twice as likely to win the games.
Since only 12% of Brazil’s land is above 600m above mean sea level, at least this factor surely favours England.