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In a rematch of last season's AFC Divisional Playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) will once again welcome Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (4-1) to Arrowhead Stadium. January's matchup was the epitome of what the NFL has to offer, with two superstar quarterbacks trading blows for four quarters in a thrilling 42-36 Kansas City win.
Unsurprisingly, the game went off the rails late in the fourth quarter when the two AFC clubs combined for 24 points in the final 120 seconds of regulation. The Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes received the ball to start overtime, going 75 yards in eight plays to win what many called the decade's best game.
The game was so influential that the NFL implemented a new playoff rule that would give both offenses the chance to score in overtime.
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The Chiefs most recently beat the Las Vegas Raiders in a thrilling 30-29 come-from-behind win. The Raiders sprung to a 17-0 lead before Mahomes put the Chiefs on the board with a strike to TE Travis Kelce. The duo would connect for three more touchdowns before the defense would come up big, forcing a turnover on downs with under a minute remaining in the fourth.
Meanwhile, the Bills won a drama-free game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Josh Allen tossed four first-half touchdowns as Buffalo stomped the Steelers 38-3. The Bills' defense was equally impressive, keeping their opponents out of the endzone for the entirety of the game. Buffalo last let up a touchdown in the first quarter of their Week 4 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. Mahomes is 1-1 all-time against Josh Allen and the Bills.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
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Tale of the Tape
The Chiefs are again off to a hot start under head coach Andy Reid. The pass-heavy offense ranks first in the NFL in points per game and second in third-down percentage.
The departure of star WR Tyreek Hill has led to more involvement from TE Travis Kelce, who leads the NFL with seven receiving touchdowns. But Kelce isn't your typical tight end, as he lines up all across the field and even occasionally takes a direct snap.
The ground game is in the top eight in production, with the trio of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco, and Jerick McKinnon splitting the work. On the other side of the ball, the defense has been mediocre.
The game script has a lot to do with the Chiefs' 24th-ranked pass defense, with opponents turning to the passing game when facing late deficits. I'm sure that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo expects more from a L'Jarius Sneed-led secondary.
The Bills are also off to a hot start, with their lone blemish coming against the Dolphins in Miami. Buffalo trails only the Chiefs for the best statistical offense in the game.
Josh Allen leads the league in passing yards, while his top target, WR Stefon Diggs, is in the top four in receiving yards and touchdowns. Although the Bills rank slightly outside the top ten in rushing, their lead back, Devin Singletary, has made the most out of his opportunities, averaging 5.3 yards per rush in his last two games.
The difference between the two AFC superpowers is that the Bills possess elite talent from top to bottom on defense. Free agent signee and two-time Super Bowl champ Von Miller has four sacks, and All-Pro safety Jordan Poyer has snagged four interceptions. Buffalo is tied for first in the NFL in points allowed.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction
When two electric offenses meet, it's expected points will be scored in a flurry. However, both head coaches are elite gameplanners that will be prepared to stimy the opposing quarterbacks.
The thing is, the Chiefs defense has holes, while the Bills are banged up in the secondary. Buffalo will be without All-Pro safety Micah Hyde as well as CB Tre'Davious White.
The lack of premier coverage talent isn't ideal when going against Patrick Mahomes. On the other end, the Chiefs have yet to piece together an elite defensive game. In a preview of what may be this year's AFC Championship game, expect points in abundance.
Prediction: o54 (-110 on Wynn)
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