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2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 15 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Saturday December 17th, 2022 8:15pm
Miami Dolphins (8-5), (6-7) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (10-3), (5-7-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (2-4) ATS MIA+7 ½
MIA couldn’t beat LAC, how are they going to beat BUFF? After a loss like that on SNF where the MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa had one of his worst games and seemed like they never get anything going. MIA had their chances but they were trailing the whole game and never caught up, losing 23-17. Had MIA WR Tyreek Hill not been paying attention and scooped up a fumble and ran it 57yds into the endzone, this game would have been a blowout by LAC. MIA hung around this whole game but an LAC DEF that has been decimated by injures, looked great against a MIA OFF that all of a sudden looked lost for most of the game. Every time MIA seemed to get close, LAC pulled away with either a fg or td. But on a good note for MIA, they were able to put pressure on LAC QB Justin Herbert, sacking him 4x but, Herbert spread the ball around to nine different receivers. BUFF got away with one, yet again. Two fumbles by NYJ with one coming in the 4th qtr stopped NYJ from possibly winning this game. Had NYJ got points from the 4th qtr drive, the game may have gone a different way. BUFF QB Josh Allen only completed 16 passes to seven different receivers and was the leading rusher for BUFF with 47yds on 10 carries. As I have said before, having your QB as your leading rusher is a recipe for disaster. BUFF had the lead all throughout the game with the NYJ playing catchup. But if you had BUFF-9 ½ the safety that NYJ scored screwed your cover with the score ending at BUFF 20-12. I liked NYJ+9 ½ because even if NYJ lost I felt strongly that it would be a closer game. Sometimes, the littlest mistakes can add points to the final score of the game.
L15 BUFF(H) vs MIA, BUFF 11-4 SU & 9-5 ATS 1NL. L27 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 15-11 ATS 1NL. L30 BUFF vs MIA, HOME 17-12 ATS 1NL. L11 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 9-2 SU & 7-3 ATS 1NL. BUFF 10-8 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs, 1NL. BUFF 6-9 ATS as a FAV in 2nd of BB HGs. BUFF 4-9 ATS as a FAV 10<pts in 2nd of BB HGs. BUFF 26-38 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 38-34 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 29-30 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 19-14 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 4-11 ATS after NYJ. BUFF 6-12-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 21-9 ATS 1NL vs MIA since 2007. MIA 26-41 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. MIA 25-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 31-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC.
This is a revenge game for BUFF after they lost in wk 3 @MIA, 21-19. However, MIA is desperate for a win because they have lost 2 straight and are now 8-5. There is some urgency on the part of both teams here as BUFF has won games but not in the dominant fashion that they started the season with. BUFF L7 5-2 SU but 1-6 ATS. BUFF is winning ugly. MIA needs to keep winning to have a place in the playoffs because it does not look like they will win the AFC EAST. MIA could easily fall out of the running for wild card spot if they go on a losing streak. MIA cannot afford to lose big here. BUFF can’t afford a loss period because that would put them only one game ahead of MIA and a tie breaker would go to MIA if they should finish tied in the standings. BUFF #2 TOT OFF vs MIA #20 TOT DEF w/#7 RUSH DEF. The weather may be a factor in this game and if does become so this may be a low scoring game. MIA needs to ground and pound, eat up some clock and wear the BUFF defenders down. If so, MIA may be able to keep it close and might even pull out the win. Take MIA and the points.
THE PICK: MIA+7 ½
Sunday December 18th, 2022 1:00pm
Dallas Cowboys (10-3), (8-5) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (5-8), (5-8) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS JAGS+5
LW, DAL escaped from a game that they almost beat themselves. DAL was a HEAVY FAV-17 @HOME vs HOU. DAL was trailing 23-20 and needed a 98yd drive late in the game to pull out the victory 27-23. It was a sloppy game by both DAL(2INTS, 1lost fumb) & HOU (1INT, 1lost fumb) that led to this game going down to the wire. HOU had nothing to lose but they made some suspect play calling that led to another loss. DAL didn’t win the game, HOU beat themselves. DAL was playing in scared mode for most of this game because they were playing a team that was loose and with nothing to lose. The pressure was all on DAL. The turning point was when HOU had 1st & goal from the DAL 4yd line but suspect play calling had HOU walking away with 0pts. At the moment HOU led 23-20 which set up DAL’s winning drive. LW, JAGS were a DOG+3 ½ @TENN. They took it to TENN like gangbusters, beating them 36-22. The big turnaround in this game was when TENN was leading 14-13 in the 2nd qtr. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill threw a pass to RB Derrick Henry who ran with it but fumbled right into the hands of JAGS Josh Allen. JAGS proceeded to get a td drive which made the score JAGS 20-14. JAGS went on to win 36-22. TENN turned the ball over 4x and JAGS scored 20pts off those turnovers. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence had a great game throwing 30/42, 368yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. Lawrence was sacked 0x as TENN put almost no pressure on him. The DEF for JAGS gave up 98yds rushing to TENN RB Derrick Henry in the 1st qtr but only 23yds after that. TENN was playing catchup for the 2nd half but to no avail as the JAGS DEF only gave up 1td all of the 2nd half.
L4 JAGS vs DAL, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS. DAL 1-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. DAL 18-10-1 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 31-45-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 30-43-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 3-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. JAGS 20-20 ATS L40 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 30-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 34-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 0-4 ATS vs NFC in 2022. JAGS 7-1 ATS @HOME after DD SU div ROAD win. JAGS 3-18 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. 1-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs non-div opp. JAGS 9-6 ATS after TENN. JAGS 1-9 ATS @HOME off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 1-8 ATS off DD SU win vs .500>opp. JAGS 2-16 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. JAGS 2-15 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 4-15 ATS off SU DOG win vs .400>opp. JAGS 4-11 ATS off SU DOG win. JAGS 7-1 ATS off DD SU DIV RAOD win vs non-div opp. JAGS 5-0 ATS @HOME off div gm vs .500>opp.
This game is going to be tough for DAL. DAL is playing another team that has nothing to lose. DAL needs to keep winning because the NFC EAST wildcards have not been decided. JAGS can play big spoiler here again. Cornerbacks for DAL are battered so Lawrence should be able to take advantage of the matchups. JAGS HC Doug Pederson knows DAL and should be able to play competitive here. JAGS need to stop the DAL run and establish their own run and let Lawrence just drop some passes all around. TE Evan Engram needs to stay in the loop as he is very important to the OFF. Yes, he had a great game vs TENN but he needs to be more involved. Yes, DAL has weapons but if DAL QB Dak Prescott is pressured, he will make mistakes. JAGS have nothing to lose. Take the HOME DOG here.
THE PICK: JAGS+5
Sunday December 18th, 2022 4:00pm
Tennessee Titans (7-6), (8-5) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ LA Chargers (7-6), (6-7) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS TENN+3
LW, TENN self-destructed @HOME vs JAGS. The turning point of the game was when TENN RB Derrick Henry was stripped of the ball and fumbled right into the hands of a JAGS defender. At the time, TENN was leading 14-13 and it looked like TENN would go on to score. But the tide turned and the JAGS would go on to score 23 straight points to lead 36-14. TENN would get a dummy td to make the final score 36-22 but it didn’t matter. The DEF for TENN didn’t make any stops and JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence picked the TENN secondary apart. LW, on SNF, somehow, the LAC DEF stifled a MIA OFF that was on a bounceback from a loss @SF. LAC was coming off their own head shaking loss @LV. This game on paper had MIA coming out ahead because of all the injuries to the LAC DEF. But guys stepped up for the LAC DEF and made stops. MIA was stopped and kept to 1 OFF td. The other td MIA got was on a fumble recovery. LAC was the HOME DOG+3. But if you only saw this game, you would have thought that LAC was a top 5 team. MIA looked lost were down in this game throughout. LAC won 23-17 and to be honest, it wasn’t that close.
L10 TENN vs LAC, LAC 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS. LAC(H) vs TENN, 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS. TENN 27-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 28-31 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 9-6 ATS after JAGS. TENN 8-1 ATS off BB SU losses vs .333>opp. LAC 7-14 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. LAC 35-32-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 32-40-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 37-41-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. LAC 29-9 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 14-5 ATS @HOME vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 20-9 ATS @HOME v snob-div opp off BB SU losses. LAC 3-14 ATS as a div HOME FAV <4pts vs >.500opp.
TENN is on a 3-game losing streak and is desperate for a win. Their season will be lost if they don’t start winning soon. Luckily, TENN is in the AFC SOUTH but, they need to start winning. Their schedule doesn’t have tough games ahead except for vs DAL but TENN has shown they can lose to anyone. TENN has lost vs NYG, @BUFF, @KC, vs CINNCY, @PHILLY & vs JAGS. That last one was a total mystery. On the other hand you really don’t know what you get with LAC. From week to week it is a crapshoot because of the HC, Brandon Staley. This guy also takes points off the board and puts his team out of reach in games when thy may have just needed a fg. One week, LAC looks good and the next week we are all scratching our heads. TENN has to get going. Both of these teams are playing for something but this game could come down to the wire. TENN is coming off a sloppy loss with 4turnovers. LAC is feeling pretty because they beat MIA. TENN on a bounceback and Henry is pissed off. I can’t see TENN losing 4 in a row. The TENN DEF has to step up or it will be over early. Take TENN & the points here.
THE PICK: TENN+3
Sunday December 18th, 2022 4:00pm
Cincinnati Bengals (9-4), (10-3) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (6-7), (3-9-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (1-5-1) ATS TB+3 ½
LW, CINNCY was @HOME vs CLEV. CLEV had already beaten CINNCY on a MNF game in wk 8. This was a little payback. The CINNCY DEF came through and held nicely as CINNCY won 23-10. CLEV wasn’t winning this game but it was very close to being a back door cover. On the last two CLEV possessions, the CINNCY DEF held and CLEV scored no points while turning it over on downs. It got a little sloppy in the 4th qtr when both teams traded INTs and that’s where back door covers happen but, CINNCY wasn’t losing this game. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow orchestrated a decent game while the running game for CINNCY contributed 136yds &1td. The CINNCY DEF kept CLEVE to 71yds on the ground. LW, TB was manhandled by SF @SF, 35-7. The TB DEF couldn’t stop SF whether it was on the ground or in the air. They didn’t even sack SF QBs 1x. The run game for TB was shut down and TB QB Tom Brady threw 55x. Brady also threw 2INTS. One was turned into a td and another didn’t go anywhere because at the time SF was already up 35-0. However, this game was over at the half as SF was leading 28-0. TB was overwhelmed in this game on both sides of the ball.
L4 CINNCY vs TB, TB 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS. TB 0-2 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. TB 9-10-2 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. TB 34-35-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 33-41-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 12-5-2 ATS vs non-conf opp off SUATS win. CINNCY 4-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. CINNCY 12-5 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 10-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CINNCY 27-31-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 27-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 6-6 ATS after CLEV. CINNCY 6-5-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. CINNCY 6-7-1 ATS L14 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 0-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV off BB SU wins vs opp off SUATS loss.
CINNCY needs this game and all their games to stay ahead of BALT. Right now, BALT is ahead because of their win earlier in the season but CINNCY needs all their games and a wk 18 win vs BALT for the division. After this game, CINNCY plays @NE & vs BUFF before playing vs BALT. They are all winnable but, none of them are easy. With regards to TB, I have said this all season, TB is not the same team and Brady looks done too. He may want to play past this season but it should not be with TB. TB has plenty other holes to fill before they even look at QB. This will be a tight game because both teams have something to play for. If CINNCY wins this game it will be by a fg or less. I can’t see TB & Brady getting smacked around in back to back blowouts. TB also has something to play for and they want to keep playing. It’s one thing to smack around CLEV but Brady has weapons and there are still good players on the TB DEF. I would be very surprised if there is a blowout either way. I like CINNCY by a fg or less.
THE PICK: TB+3 ½
Sunday December 18th, 2022 8:20pm
NY Giants (7-5-1), (9-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Washington Commanders (7-5-1), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (4-2) ATS NYG+4 ½
LW, NYG was HOME vs PHILLY. I predicted a blowout on my website and on the Rick Kamla’s show on the Bettor Sports Network. And no, I didn’t say it was going to be in NYG’s favor. Well, it wasn’t and PHILLY won 48-22. It was 48-14 when NYG got some dummy td with :39 left in the game. PHILLY sacked NYG QBs Daniel Jones & Tyrod Taylor a total of 7x. PHILLY rushed for 253yds &4tds. WASH is coming off a bye, so they are well rested. WASH 4-11 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, WASH played to a 20-20 tie @NYG. WASH QB Taylor Heinicke had a fumble to start the 2nd half that was turned into a td by NYG. WASH had their chances and then found themselves down 20-13 and needed a td drive to at least tie. They found it in the 4th qtr but, in OT neither team could muster at least a fg and it ended in a tie. The heavy run game for WASH mustered 165yds on 36 carries but couldn’t find the endzone.
L15 WASH(H) vs NYG, WASH 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS. L24 WASH vs NYG, DOG 15-9 ATS. L31 WASH vs NYG, ROAD 18-13 ATS. WASH 26-41 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. WASH 24-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 33-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 9-8 ATS as a FAV on SNF. NYG 17-14 ATS as a DOG on SNF. NYG 15-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. NYG 7-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NYG 45-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 33-32 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 37-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 13-11 ATS as a div DOG 4>pts. NYG 5-17 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYG 2-11 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs .500>opp. NYG 8-3 ATS after PHILLY.
Both of these teams have something to play for. I can’t see this game being a blowout by any means by either team. They know each other very well. For WASH, Heinicke is an upgrade and he gives the team hope. NYG have to get something going besides RB Saquon Barkley & Jones on OFF. Guys are stepping up but they need to step up more. WASH is not PHILLY but, NYG has to be tougher. You will see a heavy run game for WASH because they are successful at it and have multiple guys that can share the load. NYG is searching for the 2nd RB behind Barkley. This should be a good game but it will go down to the wire. Take NYG and the points here.
THE PICK: NYG+4 ½
BEST BET OF THE FIVE GAMES: NYG+4 ½
