New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 14 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The New Mexico Lobos (15-2) will visit the undefeated at home (#23) San Diego State Aztecs (13-3) on Saturday. New Mexico was the last remaining undefeated team in the country but lost back-to-back games to start January after a 14-0 start.

However, the Lobos bounced back nicely with a home win over an explosive Oral Roberts squad.

Leading scorer and All-MWC guard Jamal Mashburn had 24 points in the 82-75 victory, while Kansas City transfer Josiah Allick and Wichita State transfer Morris Udeze posted double-doubles.

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New Mexico vs. San Diego State Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
New Mexico Lobos	+8.5	o147.5	+275
San Diego State Aztecs	-8.5	u147.5	-350

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs Match Details

Fixture: New Mexico Lobos at San Diego State Aztecs

Date and Time: Saturday, January 14 at 9:00 PM ET

Venue: Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl

San Diego State is amid a six-game winning streak, most recently beating Nevada at home 74-65.

SDSU never trailed in the contest, leading by as many as 22 points, as standout guard Matt Bradley dropped his first double-double of the season, going for 17 points and ten rebounds.

All-MWC defensive honoree Lamont Butler and senior Keshad Johnson also scored in double-figures.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The New Mexico Lobos own a 1.12 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 38th in the nation. SDSU has the 5th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.90. New Mexico does well in all key stats, but spacing, where they are in the 5th percentile. They are also one of the worst teams when it comes to the rim & three rate metric.

Conversely, the Aztecs are in the 45th percentile in defensive spacing and 100th in the rim & three rate metric. They are in the 78th percentile in defensive shot-making, a strength of the Lobos.

The Lobos own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 110 in all those shot types except in isolation, with a 0.90 SQ PPP (207th in the country). They are first in finishing at the rim SQ PPP. Conversely, the Aztecs are in the top 170 in all those categories except in the pick & roll and post-up, falling just outside the top 225.

The San Diego State Aztecs have a 1.10 AdjOFF SQ, the 51st-best mark in the country. New Mexico has posted a 0.99 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 115th in the country. The Aztecs are in the top 60 in shot-making, free throw rate (FTR), and rim & three SQ PPP. The Lobos are in the bottom 125 in defensive rim & three SQ PPP while excelling in defensive shot-making and FTR.

SDSU is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, isolation, midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. On the other hand, New Mexico is in the bottom 150 in defending all those shot types, especially struggling with shots off of cuts, where they own a 1.28 SQ PPP (357th in the country).

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New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction

The defense of New Mexico should be problematic, as is the regression.

Meanwhile, the Aztecs roster some of the best scorers in the MWC, headlined by star Matt Bradley. They are the 24th-best team in shots off of cuts, while New Mexico is 356th in defending it.

Oh, and they are top-175 in frequency with that shot type. The Lobos aren't short on talent and are well-coached, but SDSU should grab an early lead in this contest.

Prediction: San Diego State -4.5 (-110)

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