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On Sunday, the Ohio Bobcats (1-2) will travel to Ann Arbor to take on the (#20) Michigan Wolverines (3-1).
Ohio has quietly become a high-caliber mid-major program under Jeff Boals. The Bobcats won an NCAA Tournament game in 2021 and finished last season 25-10, good for second in the MAC. Unfortunately, the three leading scorers from the previous year have since departed, leaving the cupboard somewhat bare for Boals.
However, the Bobcats welcomed three transcendent transfers to the mix, all of whom are in the starting five. Dwight Wilson, a fifth-year senior from James Madison, has been the most impressive, averaging a double-double on the year. Miles Brown, the lone returner from last year's starting lineup, averages 12.3 points per game on 50% shooting.
Michigan vs. Ohio Betting Odds
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Michigan started the season 3-0 before getting rocked by the ASU Sun Devils 87-62 on a neutral court on Thursday. The Wolverines were picked apart on defense, allowing ASU to shoot 60% from the field and splash 11-of-19 from beyond the arc. Star big man Hunter Dickinson was also put in check, scoring only 14 points on 43% shooting. Blue chip prospects Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin were abysmal from the field, combining to shoot 21%. Despite the loss, the Wolverines remain one of the favorites to win the Big Ten.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
The 2021-22 ShotQuality data provided a somewhat muddy picture of the Michigan offense. They were outstanding in the primary key stat, adjOFF SQ, but struggled with shot selection (42nd percentile) and spacing (44th percentile). However, they made up for it with elite shot-making ability. The offense ran through Hunter Dickinson, with a post-up frequency percentage of 11% and 29% in the pick and roll. The Bobcats struggled mightily on the low block last season, but the addition of big man Dwight Wilson should put some worries at ease.
The Ohio Bobcats' offense was efficient last season, using a mixed bag of shot types to score points and win games. They ranked near the middle of the NCAA in nearly every category but catch and shoot three-pointers, with which they posted a 32% frequency percentage. The Wolverines struggled with that shot type but defended off the dribble threes much better. However, the Bobcats may need help finding open threes, given that UM was fourth in the country last season in open three rate.
Michigan vs. Ohio Prediction
The Wolverines should be eager to return to the court after their embarrassing loss in the Legends Classic title game. Ohio will also look to avenge their most recent loss to Detroit. Neither team wants to string together losses, especially Michigan, who will be on their home court tonight. Both offenses are currently struggling to find a rhythm, but they are well coached and should be more efficient going forward.
That also goes for the defenses; they can't be much worse, can they? With UM desperate for a win, I expect them to be locked in on defense, leading to a play on the under.
Prediction: Under 147 (-110)
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