Oklahoma vs. Florida Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 20

On Tuesday night, the Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) will face the Florida Gators (7-4) at the Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte, North Carolina. Oklahoma avenged their loss against Arkansas with a 87-66 drumming of Central Arkansas last Saturday. Jacob Groves dropped a career-high 26 points on 4-of-6 from deep in the win. Two-time All-MWC and Nevada transfer Grant Sherfield had 17 points, while Tanner Groves added 14 points and seven rebounds of his own. Blue-chip prospect Ortega Oweh saw a career-best 15 minutes, resulting in 10 points and three steals for the freshman.

Oklahoma vs. Florida Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Oklahoma Sooners	+3	0134.5	+140
Florida Gators	-3	u134.5	-160

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Florida also avenged a loss last time out on the floor, beating the snot out of Ohio, 82-48, last Wednesday. 2021 top recruit Kowacie Reeves scored a season-high 20 points off the bench in only 18 minutes of action. Three-time All-A-10 and St. Bonaventure transfer Kyle Lofton scored 15 points while dropping seven assists in the win. LSU transfer Alex Fudge posted a 13-point, 10-rebound effort, while Trey Bonham scored 12 points.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Oklahoma Sooners own a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 123rd in the nation. Florida has the 36th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.92. Oklahoma does well in all key stats except their spacing, free throw rate, and open 3 rate, where they are in the bottom 150 of the country. Conversely, the Gators are in the top 60 in defensive spacing and open 3 rate while posting a 27.3% defensive FTR.

The Sooners own high-frequency numbers in cut, half-court, finishing at the rim, and isolation shot types. They are in the top 60 in all those shot types except isolation, with a 0.94 SQ PPP (107th in the country). Conversely, the Gators are top 80 in all those categories except 248th in cut (1.18 SQ PPP) and 189th in isolation (0.92 SQ PPP).

The Florida Gators have a 1.11 AdjOFF SQ, the 38th-best mark in the country. Oklahoma has posted a 0.94 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 51st in the country. The Gators are in the top 80 in shot selection, rim, and rate 3. The Sooners are in the 16th percentile in shot selection yet are in the bottom half of the country in defensive rim and 3 rate.

Florida is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, post-up, and P&R ball screen. Oklahoma is in the top 85 in defending all those shot types except isolation and post-up, where they own a 0.89 SQ PPP (115th) and 0.86 SQ PPP (146th).

Oklahoma vs. Florida Prediction

Both teams have played better on defense this season, with the Gators having no real offensive advantage in the game. The Sooners should be able to take advantage of Florida's poor cut and isolation defense, but spacing should remain an issue throughout. OU plays at a snail's pace on offense and shouldn't be able to have a repeat performance from deep with Florida's top-ranked perimeter defense. Ride the under in this game and don't look back.