San Jose State vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 31

San Jose State Spartans (10-4) will visit Colorado State Rams (8-6) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Saturday night. San Jose have already reached double-digit wins for the season, a feat they have only accomplished twice in the last 12 years.

Head coach Tim Miles, who led Nebraska to relevancy in the late 2010s and Colorado State to the 2012 NCAA Tournament, is in his second season with the Spartans.

Four-year starter Omari Moore (14.0 PPG), sophomore Alvaro Cardenas (9.6 PPG), and newcomer Sean Tolbert (9.9 PPG) lead the Spartans' offense while getting production from former Arizona Wildcat Tibet Gorener and Fresno State transfer Robert Valhola.

San Jose State vs. Colorado Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
San Jose State Spartans	+7.5	0133.5	+290
Colorado State Rams	-7.5	u133.5	-375

All Lines Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

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Colorado State were yet another victim of the undefeated New Mexico Lobos on Wednesday, with the final score reading 88-69. New Mexico finished 15-of-25 from deep, while Colorado State never led after the game's first few minutes.

Three-time All-MWC honoree Isaiah Stevens finished with 10 points and seven assists, but turned it over five times and shot only 27% from the floor. Upperclassmen John Tonjie and Patrick Cartier combined for 32 points on 12-of-16 shooting in the loss.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

We will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The San Jose Spartans own a 1.04 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 112th in the nation. Colorado State have the 65th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.95. San Jose have been poor in all key stats, but rim & three rate, rim & three SQ PPP, and free throw rate, where they rank between 33-114 in the country. The Rams are 101st in free throw rate and 117th in rim & three SQ PPP, while 225th in rim & three SQ PPP. Additionally, they are solid in all key stats, except defensive shot-making, where they are in the 98th percentile.

The Spartans own high-frequency numbers in the half court, P&R ball screen, off-the-dribble three-pointer, and finishing-at-the-rim shot types. They are in the top 30 of all those shot types except off-the-dribble three-pointers, with a 1.14 SQ PPP (102nd in the country), and finish at the rim, with a 0.98 SQ PPP (243rd). The Rams are in the top 150 in all those categories except in off-the-dribble three-pointers, where they are 297th (1.04 SQ PPP).

The Colorado State Rams have a 1.02 AdjOFF SQ, the 148th-best mark in the country. San Jose State has posted a 1.03 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 204th in the country. The Rams are in the top 65 in shot-making and spacing. The Spartans are in the 17th percentile in defensive spacing but are 218th in defensive shot-making.

Colorado State is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: transition, P&R ball screen, off-screen, cut, catch & shoot three, and midrange. San Jose is in the top 30 in defending transition and midrange jump shots but has been awful at protecting the perimeter.

San Jose State vs. Colorado State Prediction

ShotQuality numbers suggest that CSU has been unlucky due to opponents' shot-making. Regression should benefit the Rams while also hurting the Spartans, giving CSU the edge on the spread despite being an eight-point favorite.

San Jose has had an epic season and should be proud of their accomplishments, but CSU should be hungry to get back on their home court and win a game against a conference opponent. Take the Rams to win this one convincingly.