Texas Tech vs. Texas Southern Basketball Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 10 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-0) will play host to the Texas Southern Tigers (0-1) on Thursday, November 10.

The Red Raiders finished 27-10 last season with an 18-0 home record. Under the tutelage of first-year head coach Mark Adams, TTU continued a string of four consecutive successful seasons. They made the Sweet 16 before falling to third-seeded Duke 78-73. The Red Raiders are a revolving door for top-end talent, losing star guard Terrance Shannon Jr. to Illinois but gaining three budding stars in return, led by Oregon transfer De'Vion Harmon and ESPN top 100 recruit Rickie Isaacs. They won their home opener on Monday, defeating a lowly Northwestern State team 73-49.

Texas Southern went 19-13 last season, winning the SWAC Conference Tournament for a second straight season. However, they were blown out by top-seeded Kansas 83-56 in the first round. The Tigers went 2-8 in non-conference away games but covered the spread eight times.

They are known for bringing in older players from Power 5 conferences via the transfer portal. Last season, they had three players in the rotation that started their careers at high-end powerhouse schools, including leading scorer John Walker, who returns to Texas Southern for another year. TSU lost 90-77 in their season at San Francisco.

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Texas Tech vs. Texas Southern Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Texas Southern Tigers	+19.5	0137.5	+1600
Texas Tech Red Raiders	-19.5	u137.5	-2100

All Lines Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Per ShotQuality data, the 2021-22 rendition of the Texas Tech Red Raiders relied on athleticism and quickness to score. They posted a 1.42 SQ PPP (points per possession) in transition and a 1.20 SQ PPP with finishing at the rim. Texas Tech finishing at the rim frequency is 51. In 2022 they were 14-6 ATS against teams ranked worse than 280 in defending this type of play. Texas Southern ranked 337 in 2022.

One of TTU's most significant weaknesses was shooting the three, ranking in the bottom half of the NCAA in catch & shoot three-pointers, off-the-dribble three-pointers, and open three rate. They will look to remedy those issues with Oregon transfer De'Vion Harmon and North Carolina transfer Kerwin Walton. Harmon posted an excellent 1.07 SQ PPP on catch-and-shoot three-pointers, while Walton was in the 93rd percentile in three-point efficiency. It's business as usual for the Red Raiders defensively, posting a 0.94 AdjDEF SQ last season.

Texas Southern made their money on defense. They ranked in the top ten in rim and three rate, forcing opponents into low-percentage shots. Their one weakness was the free throw rate (FTR) allowed, something TTU did exceptionally well last season. However, the Tigers' offensive game was a completely different story. The ShotQuality data bleeds red when looking at the TSU offensive numbers, headlined by some of the worst SQ PPP numbers in rim and three SQ PPP and shot-making.

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Texas Tech vs. Texas Southern Prediction

Texas Southern is a feisty bunch and brings back some critical playmakers in John Walker and PJ Henry. Unfortunately, they couldn't cash in via the transfer portal like they did last year with Houston's Brison Gresham and South Carolina's A.J. Lawson, but hey, at least they got one of Shaq's kids, Shaqir, to commit. Their 77-point outing in their season opener was an outlier, given they went against a San Fran team going through a head coach transition.

TTU, however, is a well-oiled machine that will continue to put clamps on opposing offenses, which should spell doom for an already anemic TSU offense.

Prediction: Texas Tech -19.5 (-110)

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