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Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are the three all-time Grand Slam title leaders, with respective tallies of 20, 19 and 18. Affectionately called the Big 3 for their stellar achievements in the sport, particularly in Grand Slam tournaments, the trio have scooped up all Grand Slam titles on offer since the 2016 US Open.
The Big 3's latest stranglehold (12 Slams) is the longest on the Major scene since Federer (11), Nadal (6) and Djokovic (1) swept 18 consecutive titles from the 2005 French Open till 2009 Wimbledon. Despite being on the wrong side of 30 and new challengers emerging on the scene, the trio have shown no signs of slowing down.
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It is a momentous challenge for any player to beat the Big 3 at a Major, sometimes even to take a set or two off them in the latter stages. Federer was pushed by Marin Cilic to five sets in the 2018 Australian Open, while Kevin Anderson (2018 Wimbledon) and Grigor Dimitrov (2019 US Open) each fought back from a two sets to one deficit to conquer the mighty Swiss.
Djokovic fell two wins short of a stunning second non-calendar Slam when he went down to Dominic Thiem in the 2019 French Open semis. Thiem took a set off Nadal in the 2019 French Open final, Medvedev recovered from a two sets and a break deficit and then a double break deficit in the 5th set to almost get back on serve, but on both occasions the Spaniard dug deep to deny his inspired opponents.
Federer and Djokovic would be favourites at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Nadal at the French Open still remains one of the most compelling contenders, 15 years after making his Slam breakthrough at the claycourt Major in the summer of 2005. It is perhaps at the US Open where the newest Grand Slam champion since Cilic (2014 US Open) is most likely to emerge.
Federer hasn't won a title in New York since 2008 and hasn't made the final since 2015. Meanwhile, five of Djokovic's nine Major final defeats have come at the US Open. And despite winning two of the last three US Opens, hardcourt is not the favorite surface of Nadal.
On that note, let us meet the three most likely players to make their Grand Slam breakthrough in 2020.
#3 Daniil Medvedev
The 93rd different Grand Slam finalist in the Open Era came close to becoming the 55th different Grand Slam winner in the Open Era. But for large swathes in his maiden Grand Slam final at the 2019 US Open against 18-time Grand Slam winner Rafael Nadal, it had looked like a lost cause for Daniil Medvedev; at one stage the Russian found himself down by two sets and a break.
Three holds away, the finish line was within touching distance for the Spaniard when Medvedev decided to belatedly join the party and make it one of the most memorable US Open finals in recent times. The young Russian grabbed the third and the fourth sets and rode his momentum to arrive at break points on the Nadal serve early in the fifth.
However, he squandered the opportunities as Nadal held and then broke twice to take a seemingly insurmountable 5-1 lead.
But Medvedev wasn't done just yet. The Russian caught a second wind by holding serve and then recouping one of the breaks, before squandering two break points as Nadal dug deep to serve out victory at the second time of asking.
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That result came on the back of a glorious North American summer where Medvedev built up a head of steam. Making his Grand Slam main draw debut at the 2017 Australian Open, Medvedev reached his first final in only his 12th attempt, which is faster than four of the six active Grand Slam winners on tour (Federer-17, Djokovic-13, Cilic-28 and Juan Martin Del Potro-14). Nadal got there on his sixth attempt, and Murray also on his 12th.
If the Russian doesn't suffer from a sophomore slump, he would be one of the front-runners to become the newest Grand Slam champion - and his best chance would come on hardcourt.
#2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
In a breakthrough 2018 season, Stefanos Tsitsipas made his maiden Masters 1000 final (Coupe Rogers) where he became the lowest-ranked player to beat four consecutive top 10 opponents before being stopped by Rafael Nadal. The young Greek won his maiden title in Stockholm and closed the year on the cusp of a top 10 breakthrough.
In 2019, Tsitsipas made his 7th main draw appearance and 2nd at the Australian Open. The young Greek saved a plethora of break points to dethrone two-time defending champion Roger Federer in the fourth round, before Nadal ended his inspired run in the semifinals.
On the terre battue of Roland Garros, Tsitsipas produced one of the matches of the year before coming up second best against Stan Wawrinka. It was a five-hour fourth round slugfest of the highest quality between two single-handers.
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Tsitsipas wouldn't win a Grand Slam during the year, with respective first round losses at Wimbledon and the US Open. But the young Greek lifted the biggest title of his career by beating record six-time champion Federer in the semis and Thiem in the final to win the season-ending 2019 ATP Finals. In the process, Tsitsipas ended the year at a career-high ranking of No. 6.
With one of the best all-round games among the young players, Tsitsipas is an aggressive baseliner who doesn't hesitate to come to the net. He also possesses a big serve and exhibits the calm demeanor of a seasoned player like Federer.
If the young Greek is able to clamp down on his propensity to overhit at times, it is a matter of when and not if he lifts a maiden Grand Slam title. Perhaps it could happen some time during the 2020 season.
#1 Dominic Thiem
Dominic Thiem has had most of his success on clay, as evidenced by his 10 titles won on the surface compared to a combined haul of 6 titles on the two other surfaces (hard-5, grass-1). But the Austrian has started making his mark outside clay too.
Thiem came within two points of beating defending champion Rafael Nadal in the 2018 US Open quarterfinals, and was a tiebreak away from his biggest hardcourt title at the season-ending 2019 ATP Finals against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
2019 was a banner season for Thiem, as he became the 67th different Masters 1000 winner after beating 5-time champion Roger Federer in a three-set final at Indian Wells. Fast forward to the clay stretch of the season, and Thiem became the first player after Robin Soderling (2009-10) to make back-to-back Roland Garros finals.
In being thwarted by Nadal in a four-set title match, Thiem became only the 11th player in the Open Era to lose multiple Grand Slam finals without winning one.
The Austrian has reached at least the semifinals in each of his last 4 appearances in Paris, losing to Novak Djokovic in the 2016 semis and to Nadal on every other occasion (2017 semis, 2018-19 final). If Nadal fails to lift a staggering 13th Roland Garros title in 2020, Thiem would be the one most favored to become the newest Grand Slam winner at the claycourt Major.
Despite his improved form outside clay, Thiem's best outing in his 20 non-clay Grand Slam appearances has been a quarterfinal appearance at the US Open. Though the Austrian would be a force to be reckoned with at all the Grand Slam tournaments in 2020, his best chance of a breakthrough appears to be at the claycourt bastion of Nadal.
