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The ATP tour travels to Barcelona this week for what will be the fifth ATP 500 tournament of the year. The Barcelona Open promises to provide a lot of entertainment, with several top players looking for match practice as the clay season builds up towards Roland Garros.
11-time champion Rafael Nadal will be leading the caravan, seeking his first trophy in the Spanish city since 2018. Nadal is the favorite to win the event on paper but is coming in on the back of a shock defeat to Andrey Rublev at Monte Carlo.
There are several top players - including Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner and Diego Schwartzman - who could stand in Nadal's way at Barcelona. The 500-level tournament also has a number of exciting match-ups in the early rounds, featuring the likes of two-time champion Kei Nishikori, the returning Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and teen sensations Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti.
With main draw action set to kick off on Monday, here's a look at how the field is likely to play out:
1st quarter: Rafael Nadal likely to get through unscathed
Top seeds: [1] Rafael Nadal, [8] David Goffin, [12] Karen Khachanov, [13] Cristian Garin
Expected quarterfinal: Rafael Nadal vs David Goffin
Analysis: Rafael Nadal went empty-handed at the last edition of the tournament (in 2019), losing to Dominic Thiem in the semis. That, combined with his Monte Carlo setback earlier this week, will likely make the Spaniard even more determined than usual to go all the way in Barcelona.
Having received a first-round bye, Rafael Nadal will likely have an easy opener as he is slated to face either Adrian Mannarino or a qualifier. The third round could be a little trickier though, as he could face 13th seed Cristian Garin or Kei Nishikori.
If he navigates his way past that challenge, the 11-time champion could face David Goffin or Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals. Most would expect Nadal to make light work of either of those two players, and book his place in the last four without much trouble.
Prediction: Rafael Nadal def. Karen Khachanov
Early round matches to watch out for: Kei Nishikori vs [13] Cristian Garin
2nd quarter: Diego Schwartzman set to be tested at every stage
Top seeds: [4] Diego Schwartzman, [6] Pablo Carreno Busta, [9] Fabio Fognini, [16] Dan Evans
Expected quarterfinal: Diego Schwartzman vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Analysis: Diego Schwartzman, seeking his first European claycourt title in five years, has been given a tough draw at the Barcelona Open. Schwartzman could face either Carlos Alcaraz or Frances Tiafoe in his opener, before taking on Monte Carlo semifinalist Dan Evans in the third round.
Evans has been enjoying a second wind in his career this year. He won his first tour title in January, before upsetting World No. 1 Novak Djokovic at Monte Carlo. If Schwartzman and Evans meet on the claycourts of Barcelona, the Argentine could have a little trouble dealing with Evans' variety and backhand slice.
On the other side of the quarter, Pablo Carreno Busta and Fabio Fognini are likely to face each other for a place in the last eight.
Fognini, who has beaten King of Clay Rafael Nadal himself at Barcelona in the past, looked close to his best during his quarterfinal run at Monte Carlo. But he will likely have his hands full against Carreno Busta, who reigned supreme at the Andalucia Open two weeks ago.
Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta def. Dan Evans
Early round matches to watch out for: [4] Diego Schwartzman vs [WC] Carlos Alcaraz
3rd quarter: Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner likely to clash for a place in the last four
Top seeds: [3] Andrey Rublev, [5] Roberto Bautista Agut, [11] Jannik Sinner, [15] Casper Ruud
Expected quarterfinal: Andrey Rublev vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Analysis: Third seed Andrey Rublev would be the favorite to win the Barcelona title if Rafael Nadal falls early.
It was Rublev who bundled out Nadal at Monte Carlo, playing some fearless tennis to come through their quarterfinal match. And given his recent record in ATP 500 tournaments recently, the Russian will be expected to produce another good showing this week.
Rublev could face the mercurial Benoit Paire in the second round, before having a potential rematch with Casper Ruud in the Round of 16. Rublev beat Ruud in the Monte Carlo semifinals on Saturday, and would be favored to do the same if they meet in Barcelona.
On the other side of the quarter, Roberto Bautista has a tough opening round match, against either Gilles Simon or Pablo Andujar. If the Spaniard succeeds in reaching the Round of 16, he is most likely to face 11th seed Jannik Sinner.
Sinner has proven to be a formidable opponent on clay already. He reached the last eight at Roland Garros in 2020, and would be itching to re-assert his credentials this year after losing in the Monte Carlo first round last week.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner def. Andrey Rublev
Early round matches to watch out for: [11] Jannik Sinner vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, [3] Andrey Rublev vs Benoit Paire
4th quarter: Stefanos Tsitsipas looking to win his maiden ATP 500 tournament
Top seeds: [2] Stefanos Tsitsipas, [7] Denis Shapovalov, [10] Felix-Auger Aliassime, [14] Alex de Minaur
Expected quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov
Analysis: Stefanos Tsitsipas is still looking for his first ATP 500 title, having dropped six championship matches at this level. But the Greek has been in great form this year, having beaten Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open quarterfinals before reaching the final in Acapulco as well as Monte Carlo.
If Tsitsipas is not too fatigued by his run in the Principality, he could be a force to reckon with in Barcelona. The 22-year-old could face Marbella finalist Jaume Munar in his first match, before possibly taking on Alex de Minaur in the third round.
Tsitsipas could then face seventh seed Denis Shapovalov or talented youngster Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarters. Both Shapovalov and Auger-Aliassime have gotten the better of Tsitsipas in the past, and will be looking to do that again if they get the chance at Barcelona.
Prediction: Denis Shapovalov def. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Early round matches to watch out for: [WC] Lorenzo Musetti vs Feliciano Lopez, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Bublik
Semifinal predictions
Rafael Nadal def. Pablo Carreno Busta
Denis Shapovalov def. Jannik Sinner
Prediction for the final
Rafael Nadal def. Denis Shapovalov
What is the foot injury that has troubled Rafael Nadal over the years? Check here
