BNP Paribas Open 2023: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Indian Wells

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Alcaraz (left) takes on Sinner in the Indian Wells semifinals.
Alcaraz (left) takes on Sinner in the Indian Wells semifinals.

Fixture: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs (11) Jannik Sinner

Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Indian Wells, California, USA

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $8,800,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video


Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner preview

Alcaraz has been on a roll at Indian Wells.
Alcaraz has been on a roll at Indian Wells.

Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will continue his bid for a first Indian Wells title when he locks horns with 11th seed Jannik Sinner in the semifinal on Saturday (March 18).

The World No. 2 has been on a roll this week in the Californian desert - seeing off Thanasi Kokkinakis, Tallon Griekspoor, Jack Draper and eighth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Earlier, having made a belated start to the season after an injury in training ahead of the Australian Open, Alcaraz won his first title of the year at the Argentina Open.

At his next stop at the Rio Open, the Spanish teen - plagued by injury - squandered a set and a break lead in a loss to Cameron Norrie in the final. However, he has rediscovered his mojo at Indian Wells and has largely looked untroubed in four matches, improving to 12-1 for the season.

Meanwhile, the 13th-ranked Sinner is also having an impressive campaign en route to the last four. Notably, the Italian ended the reign of defending champion Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals to make the last four on his Indian Wells debut.

The reigning Montpellier champion is now 16-3 on the year as he eyes a second Masters 1000 final (also Miami 2021).


Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner head-to-head

The two young guns have split their four previous meetings. Alcaraz took their last clash at the 2022 US Open quarterfinals en route to his maiden Grand Slam title.


Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal games (over/under)
Carlos Alcaraz-190-1.5 (+140)Over 22.5 (-110)
Jannik Sinner+150+1.5 (+200)Under 22.5 (-130)

All odds are as per BetMGM.


Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner prediction

Sinner is into the last four on his Indian Wells debut.
Sinner is into the last four on his Indian Wells debut.

Alcaraz and Sinner are widely regarded as two of the best young players currently in the game.

Both players have formidable games, especially on hardcourts, where their strong serves, powerful hitting off either flank and elite athleticism pay rich dividends. There's very little to choose between the two players, with only one of their four previous meetings ending in straight sets (Alcaraz, 2021 Paris Round of 32). All their meetings have been closely contested and have produced some top-class tennis from both players.

While Sinner has dropped two sets this week, Alcaraz has won all eight, giving the Spaniard a slight edge in current form. Their latest matchup could be another enthraling battle, but Alcaraz is expected to see off his Italian opponent and reach his third straight final in 2023.

Prediction: Alcaraz in three sets

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