Can Rafael Nadal end Grand Slam drought at Australian Open 2024? Analyzing Spaniard's winning chances in Melbourne

Rafael Nadal has made his return to the ATP Tour after nearly a year away and his Grand Slam comeback will be at the tournament he last played before the injury hiatus.

The Spaniard is currently playing at the ATP 250 Brisbane International as a wildcard and won his first-round contest against Dominic Thiem. Nadal downed the former US Open champion 7-5, 6-1, and showed the tennis world a glimpse of his former indomitable self. He will next face local player Jason Kubler in the second round.

Nadal's performance and time on the court in Brisbane is crucial for his next tournament, the Australian Open. The former World No. 1 played at the 2023 Australian Open and suffered a hip strain during his second-round match against Mackenzie McDonald. The injury hampered not only the match but also derailed his entire 2023 season.

Now, a year later, Nadal has fully recovered and would be eyeing a good showing in Melbourne. Ideally, he would have liked to play more than one tournament before heading into a Grand Slam, but his extended recovery timeline prevented that from happening.

So, pegging him as one of the favorites to emerge victorious on January 28 would be a stretch. A couple of factors should stop one from hedging their bets on Nadal to win the year's first Grand Slam.

Firstly, the Spaniard has not seen much success at the Australian Open when his overall Grand Slam record is taken into consideration. He has won two titles in Melbourne - in 2009 and 2022 - and the last time he exited a Major in the opening round happened at the 2016 Australian Open.

Secondly, it will be interesting to see how he plays in Brisbane and how far he progresses at the tournament. If he goes all the way, the intensity of the modern-day game might take its toll on the 37-year-old and hinder his performance in Melbourne.

A lucky draw will be the third big factor affecting Nadal's chances of winning his 23rd Grand Slam. He will enter the main draw with a protected ranking and could potentially be pitted against World No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the first round. However, if he manages to avoid any seeded player in the initial rounds, one should expect Nadal to rack up some wins; if not see him enter the second week.

The current field comprising of defending champion Djokovic as well as top-notch competitors like Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Jannik Sinner, will not aid Nadal's chances either, but if the stars align, we may see one of the biggest tennis stories unfold in front of our eyes. Tennis fans, for one, would be expecting nothing less.

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Rafael Nadal downplays expectations at 2024 Australian Open

Rafael Nadal

The lengthy hiatus from tennis has seen Rafael Nadal drop down to World No. 672 and it will take some time for him to get back to his best level. The Spaniard is aware of his current form and is not setting lofty goals for himself at the Australian Open.

Nadal played down the "impossible" expectations in Melbourne and does not see himself lifting any title for some time.

“It’s impossible to think about winning tournaments today. What’s really possible is to enjoy the comeback. I don’t expect much; one year without being on the court,” he said.

Another reason why the 14-time Roland Garros champion is refraining from setting any objectives is because he doesn't envision himself playing professionally for much longer. He expects 2024 to be his last year on the tour and wants to enjoy whatever time he has left on the court.

“I can’t have super long-term goals because I don’t see myself playing a super long time. I don’t know how things are going to keep going. I’m not a player who tries to predict what can happen in the short term, and it’s even tougher in the medium period of time. I need to accept the adversity and that it’s not going to be perfect, just come with the right spirit every day,” Nadal added.