Can Rafael Nadal Win 2018 Paris Masters Title?

After the US Open, Paris Masters 1000 is the first tournament where the big three are going to compete for the title, though there is still that slim apprehension that Federer may yet skip it for the third year in a row. Regardless, tennis fans world over are excited about the possibility of seeing the three legends of the game vying for the title.

Novak Djokovic is touted as the overwhelming favourite to lift the title, and rightly so. Considering the kind of form he is in; it will take a brave man to bet against him lifting the trophy. He has won the title four times already and is expected to win his fifth this year. Roger Federer has won Paris Masters only once, which is a bit surprising as an indoor hard court is one of his most favoured surfaces.

Rafael Nadal is the only member of the big three, who is yet to lift a Paris Masters title, one of only two Masters titles missing from his trophy cabinet. In fact, it has been by far his least successful Masters event. Even though he has never won at Miami, he has been to the finals four times including last year where he lost to Federer, but he has managed to reach Paris Masters final only once, and that too as back as 2007, where he lost to David Nalbandian in a one-sided encounter (6-4, 6-0).

Nadal lost to David Nalbandian in his only Finals appearance at Paris Masters

No wonder, Nadal is not considered to be one of the possible contenders for the Paris Masters title this time round too. But a closer look at the draw may actually hint at the possibility of a realistic chance for Nadal to win his first Paris Masters.

After a bye in the first round, Nadal is scheduled to meet either Jeremy Chardy or Fernando Verdasco, most probably the latter. Some of Nadal-Verdasco matches have been quite epic, especially their 2009 Australian Open Semi Final. But despite the challenge that Verdasco has posed for him in the past, Nadal has won a whopping 16 matches to just 3 by Verdasco.

There is no reason to believe why Nadal should not be able to get it past Verdasco for the seventeenth time. And if Verdasco loses to Chardy, Nadal’s path becomes even more comfortable as he has never lost to Chardy.

The possible third-round opponent for Nadal is expected to be either Jack Sock or Richard Gasquet. The defending champion Jack Sock has had a horror of a season as a singles player, and it is highly unlikely he will make it to the third round. And even if he makes it, Nadal should be able to put it across a player whom he has defeated four times in the past and has never lost to. But going by current form, Gasquet is the one who is likely to be Nadal’s third round opponent. Nadal has a 16-0 head to head record against Gasquet. Nothing needs to be said regarding the possible outcome of this encounter if it comes to fruition.

Dominic Thiem could be Nadal's Quarter Final Opponent

Nadal’s quarterfinal opponent is most likely going to be Dominic Thiem, who gave a stern challenge to Nadal in the US Open quarter-final this year. One can expect another closely-fought encounter this time round too. But Nadal enjoys an 8-3 head to record against Thiem, and hard court is not Thiem’s preferred surface. So, Nadal should be the favourite to pull this off.

Alexander Zverev is a possible semifinal opponent for Nadal. Zverev is the most exciting next-gen player for sure, but against Nadal, he has a 0-5 losing record. Again no reason why Nadal cannot put it past his young opponent for a sixth straight time.

Nadal’s opponent in the final will most likely be the man in form, the Superman from Serbia – Novak Djokovic. Most things point at a Nadal defeat. Hard court is Novak’s favourite surface, and he is a four-time Champion in Paris. And he has an 18 – 7 head to head record against Nadal on hard courts.

But Nadal is no pushover on hard courts, either. His record on hard courts may pale in comparison to Novak’s, but he is a superb hard court player too. His 4 grand slam titles on hard courts (3 US Opens and 1 Australian Open) is proof of how good a player he is on that surface. He gave Novak a run for the money on the hard court of his most favoured grand slam, the Australian Open, in that epic 2012 Final.

The Possible Finalists?

So, Nadal may not be the favourite to win 2018 Paris Masters, but it will be wrong to not count him among possible contenders for the title. The extra motivation of holding on to his number 1 ranking and winning an elusive first Paris Masters title will keep the fire burning in him. And with a bit of luck, it could be Rafael Nadal who will be crowned Paris Masters Champion.