Canadian Open 2025: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick | National Bank Open

Rohit
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin is one of the third-round matches at the Canadian Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin is one of the third-round matches at the Canadian Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)

Match Details

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Fixture: (10) Daniil Medvedev vs (18) Alexei Popyrin

Date: July 31, 2025

Tournament: National Bank Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - Sportsnet, TVA


Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin preview

Daniil Medvedev at the Citi DC Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Daniil Medvedev at the Citi DC Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Former World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev will face defending champion Alexei Popyrin in the third round of the Canadian Open 2025.

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Medvedev received a bye into the second round, where he was up against lucky loser Dalibor Svrcina. The Russian led by a break twice and even served for the opening set at 5-4, but fumbled his lead on both occasions. He found himself in a familiar position in the tie-break after blowing a 3-0 lead.

However, Medvedev didn't allow his younger rival back into the match this time, sweeping the next four points to take the set. He rallied from a breakdown twice in the second set, eventually reeling off three games in a row to score a 7-6 (3), 6-4 win.

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Following a first-round bye, Popyrin commenced his title defense against home favorite Nicolas Arseneault. The Aussie saved a set point in the 12th game of the first set to force a tie-break and saved another set point in the tie-break to claim the set. Popyrin snagged a break of serve at the start of the second set, remaining in front until the end for a 7-6 (7), 6-3 win.


Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin head-to-head

Medvedev leads their rivalry 4-1. He won their most recent meeting at the Italian Open 2025 in straight sets.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Daniil Medvedev-325+1.5 (-900)Over 22.5 (-135)
Alexei Popyrin+240-1.5 (+425)Under 22.5 (-110)
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(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin prediction

Alexei Popyrin at the Canadian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Alexei Popyrin at the Canadian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Popyrin kicked off his title defense with a tough win over Arseneault. The latter punched way above his weight, but the defending champion proved to be too good for him in the end. He won 85 percent of his first serve points and hit 26 winners in contrast to 27 unforced errors.

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Medvedev found himself in a tough spot from time to time against Svrcina but eventually prevailed. He won 70 percent of points on the back of his first serve but struck 22 winners compared to 38 unforced errors.

Popyrin remains unbeaten at the Canadian Open so far. He beat five top 20 players en route to the title last year on his main draw debut. He's now on a seven-match winning streak at the tournament. Medvedev hoisted the winner's trophy here in 2021 and was also the runner-up in 2019.

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Medvedev has won twice as many matches as Popyrin this year, while losing one less match as well. He won their most recent showdown in Rome quite easily. However, that match was on clay.

Their last two matches on hard courts went the distance, with Popyrin winning one of them. However, his 3-8 record on hard courts this year doesn't stack up against Medvedev's 15-8 record on the surface, thus making the latter the favorite to win this contest.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev to win in three sets.

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Edited by Rohit
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