Canadian Open 2025: Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Taylor Fritz vs (6) Andrey Rublev

Date: August 5, 2025

Tournament: National Bank Open

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev preview

Second seed Taylor Fritz will continue his campaign at the Canadian Open 2025 with his quarterfinals clash set up against sixth seed Andrey Rublev.

Due to the United Cup, Fritz was unable to participate in any ATP events ahead of the Australian Open. However, he kickstarted his season with back-to-back impressive straight-sets wins over Jenson Brooksby and Christian Garin. This run was short-lived, suffering a 6-3, 5-7, 6-7, 4-6 loss against Gael Monfils subsequently.

The American No.1’s inconsistent performances continued, failing to win more than one match in Dallas and Delray Beach, respectively. His result at the Indian Wells Masters was also not memorable, suffering a 5-7, 4-6 fourth-round loss to the eventual champion, Jack Draper.

However, Fritz redeemed himself during the Miami Open. He got past Lorenzo Sonego, Denis Shapovalov, Adam Walton, and Matteo Berrettini, dropping merely one set on his way to the semifinals. Unfortunately, his run was put to an end by Jakub Mensik, suffering a 6-7, 6-4, 6-7 loss against the Czech teenager.

Fritz began his North American swing, participating in the Citi DC Open. In Washington, he got off to a flying start with wins over Aleksandar Vukic and Matteo Arnaldi, before losing to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the last eight stage. During the ongoing ATP Masters 1000 event, he has defeated Roberto Carballés Baena, Gabriel Diallo, and Jiri Lehecka.

Rublev, meanwhile, suffered a tough two-week stretch to begin his season. During this period, he suffered opening-round losses in the Hong Kong Open and the Australian Open, falling to Fabian Marozsan and Joao Fonseca, respectively.

The Russian found his rhythm shortly after, posting a 9-2 win/loss record in the subsequent three tournaments, including a title win in Qatar. Rublev defeated Alexander Bublik, Nuno Borges, Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Jack Draper during his lone title run of the season.

Unfortunately, he failed to maintain this form in the coming month, leading to opening-round losses in Dubai, Indian Wells, and Miami.

Rublev’s return to the hard-court surface began with a semifinal appearance in Los Cabos, followed by an opening-round loss in Washington. However, he has bounced back in Toronto, with wins over Hugo Gaston, Sonego, and Davidovich Fokina.

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Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev head-to-head

Fritz leads the head-to-head 5-4.

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Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Taylor Fritz	-210	+2.5 (-125)	Over 24.5 (-110)
Andrey Rublev	+165	-2.5 (-115)	Under 24.5 (-130)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev prediction

Fritz enters Tuesday’s contest as the clear favorite, boasting a higher ranking, superior hard-court win rate, and stronger recent form compared to Rublev.

His serve has been especially dominant on this surface, with 65.9% of first serves and 93% of second serves landing in, and winning 80.1% and 53.4% of points behind them, respectively. In contrast, Rublev lands 63.8% and 90.6% of his first and second serves, while winning 76.2% and 50.9% of points on these serves.

Not only are these stats stronger than Rublev’s, but Fritz also averages 3.1 more aces per match while committing fewer double faults.

Pick: Fritz to win in straight sets.