Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: World No. 1 scenarios at play in US Open 2025

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have separated themselves from the rest of the field with their incredible results over the past year. The two are now set to lock horns in the Cincinnati Open 2025 final, their fourth showdown in a championship round this season. The outcome of their latest contest could have massive implications for the World No. 1 ranking at the upcoming US Open.

Sinner is the reigning World No. 1 and the defending champion at the Cincinnati Open. By reaching the final, he has defended 650 of his 1,000 points. However, he's set to lose an additional 200 points for not competing at this year's Canadian Open, where he was defending quarterfinal points from last year.

With the Cincinnati Open and the Canadian Open both expanding to two weeks this year from their usual one-week slot, the rankings update have been delayed as well. Thus, Sinner will lose his 200 points in the upcoming update. If he successfully defends his title in Cincinnati, then he will have 11,830 points.

That would leave Alcaraz with 9,230 points with a loss in the final. He skipped the Canadian Open last year, and lost in the second round of the Cincinnati Open, so he was defending a grand total of 10 points across both tournaments this time. By advancing to the final of the Cincinnati Open, he has already boosted his ranking tally by 640 points.

If Alcaraz defeats Sinner in the final, then he will have 9,580 points while the latter will have 11,480 points. Even though the Italian will head to the US Open with a lead of almost 2,000 points in this case, his tenure at the top of the rankings will still be in danger.

Sinner is the defending champion at the US Open, so he has 2,000 points to safeguard over the next fortnight. Alcaraz was stunned in the second round last year, so he only has 50 points to worry about in New York, thus giving him ample opportunity to catch up to Sinner.

If Sinner wins the Cincinnati Open, then taking out his US Open points would leave him with 9,840 points while Alcaraz would have 9,190 points. This gives the Italian some breathing room, with a cushion of 650 points. Even if he loses in the early rounds, the Spaniard will need to reach at least the semifinals in order to supplant him as the World No. 1.

If Sinner makes the semifinals as well, then Alcaraz will need to win the US Open to guarantee himself the top spot. If both make the final in New York, then the winner will be the top-ranked player in the world.

However, Alcaraz winning the Cincinnati Open would bring another scenario into play. His triumph at the Masters 1000 tournament would leave him with 9,540 points once his US Open points from last year are taken off, while Sinner will have 9,490 points. The Spaniard has to go just one round further than his rival in order to replace him as the World No. 1 in this case.

Thus, whoever wins the Cincinnati Open will have an advantage heading into the US Open with regards to the No. 1 ranking. Given how the two of them have performed this year, it wouldn't be surprising to see him battling it out for the US Open title as well. However, all eyes will first be on their Cincinnati Open showdown.

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Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will face off in the final of the Cincinnati Open 2025

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will battle it out for the Cincinnati Open 2025 title on Monday, August 18. This will be their fourth meeting this year, and all of them have been in finals as well.

Alcaraz won their first meeting this year in the Italian Open final, beating Sinner in straight sets in front of his home crowd. It also marked his fourth consecutive win over him, after beating him thrice in 2024. He extended his winning streak against his older rival in a riveting French Open final.

Sinner held three championship points on Alcaraz's serve in the summit clash but the latter fended them off, eventually scoring a memorable comeback win in five sets. The Italian avenged his Paris heartbreak a month later when they met in the Wimbledon final.

Alcaraz was the two-time defending champion at the All England Club. His hopes of a hat-trick came to an end with a four-set loss to Sinner. The two are now set to renew their rivalry after a gap of one month in Cincinnati.

If Sinner defends his title in Cincinnati, then he would become the first player since Roger Federer in 2015 to do so. Should Alcaraz come out on top, then it would be his maiden title at the tournament. The two have put on a show in all of their matches so far, and their latest installment promises to deliver on all fronts as well.