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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (3) Alex de Minaur
Date: September 30, 2025
Tournament: China Open
Round: Semifinal
Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,016,050
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur preview
Top seed Jannik Sinner will take on Alex de Minaur in the semifinals of the China Open 2025.
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Following a routine 6-2, 6-2 win over Marin Cilic in his opener, Sinner needed three sets to get past Terence Atmane. He was up against Fabian Marozsan in the quarterfinals. The first set was a walk in the park for the Italian, claiming it for the loss of only one game.
Both players defended their serves quite well at the start of the second set. Sinner was the first to create a break point opportunity, having four of them in the eighth game but failing to convert. It proved to be costly as Marozsan didn't make the same mistake, securing a break of serve in the ninth game. However, the Italian stopped his opponent from serving out the set in the next game, and then also bagged the two games for a 6-1, 7-5 win.
De Minaur commenced his run in Beijing with a 6-4, 6-0 win against home favorite Bu Yunchaokete. Arthur Rinderknech gave him a tough fight in the second round but he managed to prevail in three sets in the end. He took on Jakub Mensik for a spot in the semifinals. The Aussie raced to a 4-1 lead in the first set, following which his opponent threw in the towel due to an injury, thus sending him into the next round.
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur head-to-head
Sinner leads their rivalry 10-0. He won their previous meeting en route to the Australian Open 2025 title in straight sets.
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur prediction
Sinner improved his record for the season to 40-5 following his win over Marozsan. He found himself in a sticky situation towards the end of the second set but bailed himself out of trouble in no time. De Minaur didn't get the opportunity to test himself against Mensik, who unfortunately had to retire a few minutes into their contest. His record for the year now stands at 47-17.
Given their lopsided head-to-head, Sinner will be the favorite to win this match. Since the start of their rivalry in 2019, he has won nine of their 10 matches in straight sets. The last time de Minaur won a set was in 2020.
Aside from their rivalry, Sinner has also proven to be a beast on hardcourts. He has a 74-5 record on the surface since the start of 2024, with four of those losses coming against Carlos Alcaraz. The Italian's dominance on hardcourts as well as over de Minaur should help him reach the final in Beijing for the second year in a row.
Pick: Jannik Sinner to win in straight sets.
