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Match Details
Fixture: (13) Karolina Muchova vs (18) Paula Badosa
Date: September 28, 2025
Tournament: China Open
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $8,963,700
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Karolina Muchova vs Paula Badosa preview
Top 20 players Karolina Muchova and Paula Badosa will clash in the third round of the China Open 2025.
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Following a first-round bye, Muchova was up against Sorana Cirstea in the second round. This was their third meeting this season, and just a few weeks after their US Open thriller won by the Czech in three sets. While their previous match was competitive until the end, that wasn't the case this time.
Muchova was all over Cirstea right from the start on this occasion, prohibiting her opponent from settling into a rhythm like the last time. She broke the Romanian's serve twice in each set to record a comfortable 6-2, 6-3 win.
Badosa received a bye into the second round, where Antonia Ruzic awaited her. The Spaniard raced to a 3-1 lead in the opening set, and snagged another break of serve towards the end for good measure to clinch the set.
Ruzic raised her level in the second set, putting her opponent in a spot of bother. However, she couldn't sustain her lead, letting go of her break advantage twice due to some stellar play from Badosa. The latter forced a tie-break after stopping her younger rival from serving out the set at 6-5, coming out on top in it for 6-3, 7-6 (2) win.
Karolina Muchova vs Paula Badosa head-to-head
Badosa leads their head-to-head 2-1. She won their previous meeting at Wimbledon 2024 in straight sets.
Karolina Muchova vs Paula Badosa
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Karolina Muchova vs Paula Badosa prediction
Muchova cruised to an easy win against Cirstea, erasing the only break point she faced during the match with breaking a sweat. Badosa was made to work hard by Ruzic in the second half of the match but she was up for the challenge.
Both players have dealt with their fair share of injuries this season. Badosa returned to the tour a week ago to represent Spain in the Billie Jean King Cup Finals, losing her singles tie against Elina Svitolina in three sets. It was her first match since falling at the first hurdle at Wimbledon.
Muchova returned from her two-month hiatus at the French Open and has slowly improved her results with every tournament. She recently made the quarterfinals of the US Open, going down to Naomi Osaka.
This will be their first meeting on hardcourts. Badosa has won their last two matches, though the odds of a hat-trick seem slim. She's still finding her footing after her injury layoff, while Muchova has had plenty of matches under her belt since her own return from an injury break. The Czech's crafty brand of tennis could prove to be too much to counter for the Spaniard at the moment.
Pick: Karolina Muchova to win in three sets.
