China Open 2025: Lorenzo Musetti vs Adrian Mannarino preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Lorenzo Musetti and Adrian Mannarino to face off for 3rd time on ATP Tour | Image Source: Getty
Lorenzo Musetti and Adrian Mannarino to face off for 3rd time on ATP Tour | Image Source: Getty

Match Details

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Fixture: (4) Lorenzo Musetti vs (Q) Adrian Mannarino

Date: September 28, 2025

Tournament: China Open 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 16)

Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Outdoor hard

Prize Money: $8,963,700

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Lorenzo Musetti vs Adrian Mannarino preview

Lorenzo Musetti hits a forehand | Image Source: Getty
Lorenzo Musetti hits a forehand | Image Source: Getty

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Fourth-seeded Lorenzo Musetti will face France's Adrian Mannarino for a place in the quarterfinals of the 2025 China Open on Sunday (September 28).

While Musetti has enjoyed a career-best season in 2025, reaching as high as 6th in the world, he has yet to win an ATP singles title since 2022. Last week, the Italian stumbled in the Chengdu Open title match defeat to Chile's Alejandro Tabilo despite having held two championship points in the deciding set. The 23-year-old is looking to make amends for the above loss in Beijing this week.

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The second seed's campaign got off to a rough start on Friday as he weathered a three-set challenge from the big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. He will next face a resurgent Mannarino, who hasn't dropped a single set in his two qualifying and one main draw win at the 2025 China Open.

Having been placed as low as 145th in the ATP rankings this March, the 37-year-old has got his ranking back up to 60th in the world and is currently in good form if his 6-3, 6-2 defeat of World No. 16 Alexander Bublik was any indication.

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Lorenzo Musetti vs Adrian Mannarino head-to-head

Musetti and Mannarino are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. The Italian and the Frenchman split their hardcourt encounters at the 2024 Chengdu Open and the 2023 Indian Wells Masters, respectively.


Lorenzo Musetti vs Adrian Mannarino odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games (Over/Under)
Adrian Mannarino+145+1.5 (-185)Over 22.5 (-115)
Lorenzo Musetti-190-1.5 (+125)Under 22.5 (-125)
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All bets sourced from BetMGM.


Lorenzo Musetti vs Adrian Mannarino prediction

Adrian Mannarino hits a backhand | Image Source: Getty
Adrian Mannarino hits a backhand | Image Source: Getty

Musetti's baseline game has been very efficient in 2025, allowing him to stack up match wins. The Italian doesn't go for broke from either wing, yet his shots always have weight and depth. That said, the World No. 9 will have to maintain a good first-serve percentage to stay on top of rallies in his Round-of-16 match.

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Mannarino doesn't possess the same kind of shotmaking talent as his younger opponent. Instead, the former World No. 17 relies on redirecting pace from his low-tension racket string. The French qualifier is looking on-song this week in Beijing, and if Musetti is not composed, he might just end up exiting the tournament.

Pick: Adrian Mannarino to win in straight sets.

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Edited by Rudra Biswas
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