Cincinnati Open 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (3) Alexander Zverev

Date: August 16, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Cincinnati Open

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, USA

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

---

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev preview

In Picture: Carlos Alcaraz in action (Getty)

One of the semifinals at the 2025 Cincinnati Open will feature the second seed, Carlos Alcaraz, taking on the third seed, Alexander Zverev.

Alcaraz has been in sensational form in 2025, winning over 50 matches and clinching five titles across the three surfaces. The Spaniard has faced only six losses in the whole season, and had a 24-match win streak that started from the Italian Open, which was broken by Jannik Sinner at the Wimbledon final.

At the Cincinnati Open, Carlos Alcaraz got a bye in the first round, after which he had a rusty outing against Damir Dzumhur in the second round, winning 6-1, 2-6, 6-3. His next two rounds were without any jeopardy, as he won 6-4, 6-4 against Hamad Medjedovic in the third round, and secured a 6-1, 6-4 win over Luca Nardi in the fourth round.

In the quarterfinals, Carlos Alcaraz squared off against ninth seed Andrey Rublev. The Spaniard broke the Russian's serve twice in the first set, winning it 6-3. However, Rublev got a break in the second set, winning it 6-4. In the final set, Alcaraz went ahead 5-3 and had the opportunity of serving it out, but a loose game helped Rublev break back. However, at 5-6 and match point down, the Russian made a double fault, handing the victory to the second seed.

Alexander Zverev has a 43-15 win/loss record in 2025, winning a sole title at his home event in Munich. He started with good form on the hard courts this year, reaching the final at the Australian Open, but was no match for Jannik Sinner in the title clash.

Since the loss in the Melbourne final, Zverev's form on the hard courts declined, as he had early exits in Acapulco, Indian Wells, and Miami. However, he got back to form on the hard courts at the Canadian Open, where he reached the semifinals, but lost against Karen Khachanov, despite having match points.

At the Cincinnati Open, Zverev got a bye in the first round, and then won 6-3, 6-3 against Nishesh Basavareddy and 6-4, 6-4 against Brandon Nakashima, before getting a win via retirement against Khachanov in the fourth round. In the quarterfinals, he put on a dominant display, winning 6-2, 6-2 against fifth seed Ben Shelton, who was on a nine-match winning streak, having won the title in Toronto.

---

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev head-to-head

The head-to-head is 6-5 in favor of Zverev, who won the last match 7-6 (5), 6-4 at the ATP Finals last year.

---

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Carlos Alcaraz	-225	-1.5 (+105)	Over 23.5 (+100)
Alexander Zverev	+180	+1.5 (-155)	Under 23.5 (-145)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

---

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev prediction

Carlos Alcaraz has won 76 percent and 55 percent of his first and second serve points in Cincinnati this year. However, his serving has looked vulnerable at times, as he has been broken seven times in four matches so far. On the return, he has converted 16 of 34 break point opportunities he has created.

Zverev has a 78 percent win rate behind his first serve and a 52 percent win rate behind his second serve. He has been secure behind his serve, having been broken only once in four matches. He has been solid in his return games as well, as he has a 50 percent break point conversion rate.

If Zverev can take care of his service games, he can put pressure on the Alcaraz serve, creating opportunities. However, the Spaniard is a great player in high-pressure situations and is the favorite to win and go through to the final.

Pick- Alcaraz to win in three sets