Cincinnati Open 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (LL) Luca Nardi

Date: August 13, 2025

Tournament: Cincinnati Open 2025

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Centre, Mason, Ohio, USA

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi preview

Carlos Alcaraz serves during his 3R win in Cincinnati | Image Source: Getty

Second-seeded Carlos Alcaraz will face Italy's Luca Nardi in the fourth round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open on Thursday (August 14).

Over the last few months, Alcaraz has enjoyed a well-deserved resurgence at the big tournaments following a short, rough patch between August 2024 to March 2025. The Spaniard has since got back on track with a title victory at Roland Garros and a runner-up finish at Wimbledon.

Having received a first-round Bye at this year's Cincinnati Open, the 2023 runner-up weathered a three-set challenge from Bosnia's Damir Dzumhur to reach the Round of 32. The 22-year-old then defeated the talented Hamad Mejdedovic 6-4, 6-4 in what was a rather tight straight-set affair.

Nardi, meanwhile, has struggled with his results since reaching the quarterfinals at the Dubai Tennis Championships in February. Before this week, the Italian had dropped 15 of his last 23 outings (including qualifying and Challenger-level matches).

That said, the World No. 67 has made plenty of amends with his run in Cincinnati despite it almost ending in the final qualifying rounds of the 1000-level event. Thanks to a Lucky Loser (LL) spot in the main draw, he has now defeated higher-ranked opponents like Jakub Mensik and Denis Shapovalov en route to the fourth round of the tournament.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi head-to-head

Alcaraz leads Nardi 1-0 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. The World No. 2 got the better of the Italian in three sets at the Qatar Open earlier in February.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over/Under)
Luca Nardi	+950	+1.5 (+310)	Over 17.5 (-190)
Carlos Alcaraz	-2500	-1.5 (-550)	Under 17.5 (+130)

All bets sourced from BetMGM.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi prediction

Luca Nardi hits a forehand | Image Source: Getty

Alcaraz has yet to reach his top levels during his Cincinnati Open campaign thus far if his struggles to hit groundstrokes with depth are anything to go by. The second seed will have the opportunity to fine-tune his game against Nardi, who is an explosive baseliner of a similar mould to him.

While the 22-year-old lucky loser has equally balanced shots on either wing, not unlike Alcaraz, he also struggles with low margin and consistency. Moreover, it remains to be seen whether he has adapted to the hot playing conditions in Cincinnati this week. All in all, the Spaniard should navigate this challenge relatively unscathed.

Pick: Alcaraz to win in straight sets.