Cincinnati Open 2025 Final: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (2) Carlos Alcaraz

Date: August 18, 2025

Tournament: Cincinnati Open

Round: Final

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, US

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz preview

Jannik Sinner at the Cincinnati Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Defending champion Jannik Sinner will take on second seed Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the Cincinnati Open 2025.

Following a first-round bye, Sinner kicked off his title defense with an easy 6-1, 6-1 win over Daniel Elahi Galan. He didn't concede a set in the next two rounds as well, beating 30th seed Gabriel Diallo and qualifier Adrian Mannarino in straight sets. He beat 23rd seed Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-0, 6-2 to set up a semifinal showdown against qualifier Terence Atmane.

The opening set went down to the wire, with Sinner sneaking past Atmane in the tie-break to claim the set. He took control of the match after that, breaking his opponent's serve twice in the second set to register a 7-6(4), 6-2 win.

Alcaraz commenced his quest for a maiden title in Cincinnati with a three-set win over Damir Dzumhur. After comfortable wins over Hamad Medjedovic and Luca Nardi, he was pushed to three sets by Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals but prevailed in the end. He was up against third seed Alexander Zverev in the semifinals.

Alcaraz was the first to face break points in the first set, though he erased all three of them to remain steadfast on serve. It proved to be a costly miss for Zverev as the Spaniard converted his break point chances to go 4-3 up. He remained ahead until the end to clinch the set.

The pair traded service breaks at the start of the second set but found their rhythm on serve over the next few games. Alcaraz upped the ante towards the end, bagging four games on the trot for a 6-4, 6-3 win.

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz head-to-head

Alcaraz leads their rivalry 8-5. Sinner won their most recent meeting in four sets when they met in the Wimbledon final a month ago.

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Jannik Sinner	-160	+1.5 (-425)	Over 22.5 (-135)
Carlos Alcaraz	+125	-1.5 (+250)	Under 22.5 (-105)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction

Carlos Alcaraz at the Cincinnati Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

The tour's two best players are set to collide in yet another final this year. This will be the fourth final between Sinner and Alcaraz this season. Sinner won their most recent one at Wimbledon, while the latter had the last laugh in the French Open and Italian Open finals, even saving three championship points in Paris.

Sinner is bidding to become the first man to defend the Cincinnati Open title since Roger Federer did the same in 2015. He hasn't dropped a set so far and didn't face a single break point in the semifinals against Atmane. He is also on a 26-match winning streak on hardcourts, a run that commenced with his victory at the Shanghai Masters 2024.

Alcaraz is through to his seventh consecutive final of the year, as well as his second in Cincinnati. He came quite close to winning the title here two years ago but blew a championship point against Novak Djokovic in the final. His path to the final this year has been quite uneven, needing three sets to win on two occasions.

Aside from an overall 8-5 advantage in the rivalry, Alcaraz also leads Sinner 5-2 on hardcourts and 3-2 in finals. However, the Italian has established himself as the leading hardcourt player of his generation. Considering his current unbeaten run on the surface, he will be the favorite to defend his crown in Monday's final.

Pick: Jannik Sinner to win in straight sets.