Cincinnati Open 2025: Jannik Sinner vs Gabriel Diallo preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (30) Gabriel Diallo

Date: August 11, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Cincinnati Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, USA

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $ 9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Jannik Sinner vs Gabriel Diallo preview

Top seed Jannik Sinner will look to continue his title defense as he faces thirtieth-seed Gabriel Diallo in the third round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.

This is only the sixth event for Sinner in 2025 owing to his three-month doping suspension earlier this year. The Italian has been in supreme form this year, winning two of the three Majors so far, and narrowly missing out at the Roland Garros final against Carlos Alcaraz.

On the hard courts, the Italian player has been nearly unstoppable since last year as he is on a 22-match winning streak on the surface. The streak has seen him win the title in Shanghai, win the ATP Finals, help Italy clinch the Davis Cup, and win the Australian Open earlier this year. His last hard-court loss came at the hands of Alcaraz, who beat him in the final showdown at the China Open last year.

At the Cincinnati Open, the defending champion got a bye in the first round due to his top seeding. He began his title defense with a routine 6-1, 6-1 win over Daniel Elahi Galan in the second round.

Meanwhile, Gabriel Diallo has won 31 of the 52 matches he has played so far in 2025. The Canadian player has had most of his success on grass this year, reaching the quarterfinals in Mallorca and winning the Libema Open, where he won 7-5, 7-6 (8) against Zizou Bergs in the final.

The North American hard-court swing has not been impressive for Diallo so far, as he lost 3-6, 2-6 against Ben Shelton in the third round of Washington and lost 4-6, 2-6 against Taylor Fritz in Toronto. After getting a bye in the opening round in Cincinnati, he began his campaign with a 7-5, 6-4 win over Sebastian Baez in the second round.

Jannik Sinner vs Gabriel Diallo head-to-head

This will be the first meeting between the two players on the ATP Tour.

Jannik Sinner vs Gabriel Diallo odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Jannik Sinner	-5000	-1.5 (-700)	Over 19.5 (+105)
Gabriel Diallo	+1200	+1.5 (+375)	Under 19.5 (-150)

(Odds have been sourced from BetMGM)

Jannik Sinner vs Gabriel Diallo prediction

Sinner has an 80 percent win rate on hard courts, having won 17 titles from 22 finals on the surface. He has a 70 percent win rate in Cincinnati, with his best result coming last year when he won the title with a win over Frances Tiafoe in the final.

Diallo has reached one hard-court final in his career so far, as the Canadian played at the final of the Almaty Open last year, losing against Karen Khachanov. He also had three hard-court titles on the Challenger Tour, the last of which came in Chicago last year, where he won against Bu Yunchaokete in the final.

Sinner is the overwhelming favorite to win the upcoming match as he is the top player on the ATP circuit currently and is the defending champion in Cincinnati.

Pick- Sinner to win in straight sets

About the author

Sagnik, a Mass Communication and Journalism graduate, is a tennis journalist at Sportskeeda. Before finding his spot in the tennis writing team, he worked as a junior content specialist for academic content writing firms for a couple of years.

Before putting out any information in the public domain, Sagnik makes sure that every element of his content is well-researched and backed with credible data so that there is no misinterpretation of facts or quotes and ethical standards are maintained. To do so, Sagnik follows reputed websites like the Tennis Channel and Tennis TV, and renowned journalists on social media.

He is a fan of former player Roger Federer, and just like his favorite player, Sagnik likes to bring perfection to his write-ups by providing concise and on-point content. Speaking of the ‘GOAT’ debate, Sagnik believes that it is a bit unfair to compare the legends of the game from different eras who have played on different terms. But if he were to pick one, he’d go for Novak Djokovic based on his tally of 24 Grand Slam titles.

When not writing about tennis and technically analyzing the sport, which he believes are his 'forte', Sagnik indulges in reading books.

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Edited by Pratham K Sharma