Cincinnati Open 2025: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (4) Taylor Fritz vs (31) Lorenzo Sonego

Date: August 11, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Cincinnati Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, USA

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $ 9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego preview

Fourth seed and home favorite Taylor Fritz will look to keep his 2025 Cincinnati Open campaign on track when he faces 31st seed Lorenzo Sonego in the third round.

Fritz has a 37-14 win/loss record this year, which has been largely due to his 13-2 record during the grass-court season, which saw him win titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne, and reach the semifinal at Wimbledon.

Fritz struggled on the hard courts earlier this year, losing against Gael Monfils in the third round of the Australian Open. Overall, he is 21-8 on hard courts this year, having reached the semifinals in Miami and Toronto. The American player started his North American hard-court swing with a 6-7 (3), 6-3, 5-7 loss against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the quarterfinals in Washington, followed by a semifinal run in Toronto, where he lost 4-6, 3-6 against Ben Shelton.

Being the fourth seed, Fritz got a bye in the first round at the Cincinnati Open. He started his campaign off with a confident 6-4, 6-4 win over American qualifier Emilio Nava in the second round.

Lorenzo Sonego has won 16 of the 35 matches he has played in 2025, with his best outing coming at the Australian Open, where he lost against Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals. However, the Italian's overall form has been underwhelming as he has not gone past the second round in 15 of the 19 events he has played leading up to Cincinnati.

Sonego's North American hard-court swing started with a 7-5, 7-5 loss against Matteo Arnaldi in Washington, followed by a 7-5, 4-6, 3-6 loss against Andrey Rublev in the third round in Toronto. After receiving a bye in the first round, he began his Cincinnati Open campaign with a 6-3, 7-6 (4) win over Zizou Bergs in the second round.

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego head-to-head

Fritz has a 5-2 head-to-head record against Sonego, with the American player winning 7-6 (2), 6-3 in the last match he played against the Italian in Miami this year.

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Taylor Fritz	-625	-1.5 (-190)	Over 22.5 (-105)
Lorenzo Sonego	+400	+1.5 (+130)	Under 22.5 (-140)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego prediction

Five out of Fritz's ten career titles have come on the hard courts, with the American player reaching 12 finals on the surface so far. He has an 8-7 win /loss record in Cincinnati so far, with his best results being successive quarterfinal runs in 2022 and 2023.

Sonego, meanwhile, has reached three hard-court finals in his ATP career, winning two titles, the last of which came at the Winston-Salem Open last year. He has a 38 percent win rate in Cincinnati and has never been past the second round at the event.

Fritz is the higher-ranked player and has never lost against Sonego on a hard court, making him the favorite to win the upcoming match.

Pick- Fritz to win in straight sets

About the author

Sagnik, a Mass Communication and Journalism graduate, is a tennis journalist at Sportskeeda. Before finding his spot in the tennis writing team, he worked as a junior content specialist for academic content writing firms for a couple of years.

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He is a fan of former player Roger Federer, and just like his favorite player, Sagnik likes to bring perfection to his write-ups by providing concise and on-point content. Speaking of the ‘GOAT’ debate, Sagnik believes that it is a bit unfair to compare the legends of the game from different eras who have played on different terms. But if he were to pick one, he’d go for Novak Djokovic based on his tally of 24 Grand Slam titles.

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Edited by Pratham K Sharma