Cincinnati Open 2025: Tommy Paul vs Adrian Mannarino preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (13) Tommy Paul vs Adrian Mannarino

Date: August 11, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Cincinnati Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, USA

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $ 9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Tommy Paul vs Adrian Mannarino preview

Tommy Paul at Cincinnati Open 2025 - Source: Getty

Tommy Paul arrives in Cincinnati off a disappointing grass season. He's back in action for the first time since Wimbledon.

Earlier this year, he delivered strong hardcourt performances, reaching the quarters in the Australian Open and semis in both Adelaide and Dallas. His consistent ranking once hovered in the 9-12 range, but recent form and inactivity have seen him slip to 16.

Adrian Mannarino, now 37, has a 2025 record of 5-9 and modest success. He has spent much of the season playing qualifiers and Challenger events. He found some success at Wimbledon, winning three qualifying matches and reaching the third round.

In the US Open swing, the Frenchman put up a strong display to defeat Marcos Giron in Canada before being beaten by Ben Shelton. Overall, it’s been a middling campaign.

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Tommy Paul vs Adrian Mannarino head-to-head

This will be the third meeting between Paul and Mannarino, with their head-to-head tied at 1-1. Paul won their first clash at Wimbledon 2022 in straight sets. Mannarino leveled the rivalry by beating Paul at the 2024 Paris Masters, also in straight sets.

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Tommy Paul vs Adrian Mannarino odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Tommy Paul	-425	-4.5 (-110)	Over 20.5 (-140)
Adrian Mannarino	+290	+4.5 (-135)	Under 20.5 (-105)

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Tommy Paul vs Adrian Mannarino prediction

Adrian Mannarino at the Cincinnati Open 2025 - Source: Getty

Paul is the No. 13 seed and makes a solid return to hardcourt action. After a bye in the first round, he beat Pedro Martinez 6-2, 6-2 in the second. It's his first appearance since Wimbledon, following a disappointing grass swing.

Mannarino, meanwhile, has been in impressive form this week in Cincinnati. He came through qualifying without dropping a set, beating Michael Krueger 6-1, 6-1 and Dalibor Svrcina 6-3, 6-4.

In the main draw, he dismantled Jordan Thompson 6-2, 6-2 before stunning 19th seed Tomas Machac 6-3, 6-3 in the second round. The 37-year-old's consistency and court craft have been on full display, with all five of his wins here coming in straight sets.

Mannarino's hard-court fluency and Cincinnati rhythm make an upset plausible. With Paul just back on tour and resetting, Mannarino could scrape through again.

Pick: Adrian Mannarino in three sets.