French Open 2011 Men's Draw: The Mission of a Madman

This may sound counterintuitive considering Rafael Nadal’s absolute stranglehold on the surface for more than half a decade, but the clay swing has actually produced the most absorbing passages of play of the tennis calendar in recent years. Up until 2009, Roger Federer’s storied attempts to piece together the last puzzle missing from his résumé captured the imagination of everyone remotely interested in the game; when Nadal repeatedly thwarted Federer’s quest it led to the creation of a legion of dramatic storylines. This year, Federer may have been reduced to an afterthought, but his place has been taken by Novak Djokovic who, riding a 39-match winning streak, will look to launch his mission to dethrone the King of Clay with something akin to the passion of a madman. Will Nadal withstand the Djokovic storm with as much poise and composure as he did the Federer assaults?

First Quarter: Defense of the Kingdom

Nadal opens his campaign against big-serving John Isner, which may look like an interesting match-up on paper, but in reality, will probably end up as a slightly extended warm-up session for the World No. 1. After that, the players lined up to face the clay master, in order, are Santiago Giraldo, Nikolay Davydenko and one of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Fernando Verdasco and Ivan Ljubicic. It’s safe to say that Nadal won’t be quaking in his shoes at hearing any of those names.

Nadal’s potential quarter-final opponent, Robin Soderling, has a similarly uneventful draw, with hardcourt specialists Mardy Fish and Gilles Simon being the most dangerous opponents in his section. A second rematch of the 2009 fourth round (the first was right here in the final last year, with Soderling getting whipped in straight sets), when Soderling sent shock waves around the tennis world by handing Nadal his first (and only) defeat in a 5-set match on clay, seems imminent. And if the recent form of the two players is anything to go by, expecting a result much different from the first rematch would be, if not exactly delusional, then certainly going against the tide.

Prediction: Nadal def. Soderling

Dark horse: Grigor Dimitrov

Second Quarter: The Customary Cupcake

Andy Murray did everything right in his Rome semifinal against Djokovic last week except getting the win. His reward for his efforts? A cupcake draw at Roland Garros. Victor Trioki and young guns Milos Raonic and Alexandr Dolgopolov are the most threatening names in Murray’s section up to the fourth round, and while Murray can’t really be depended upon at a Slam to douse the challenge of a player ranked well below him, least of all on clay, his newfound confidence on the surface should stand him in good stead.

Murray’s theoretical quarterfinal opponent, based on the seedings, is Jurgen Melzer, but don’t bet on anything of that sort to materialize. This year the 8^th-seeded Melzer hasn’t come close to recapturing his form from his semifinal run here last year, and he will likely be brought down by Nicolas Almagro in the fourth round, if not earlier. Speaking of Almagro, he has the game to seriously trouble Murray on this surface, and the only reason I’m not picking him to make the semis is Murray’s substantially greater experience of playing the late stages of a Major.

Prediction: Murray def. Almagro

Dark horse: Alexandr Dolgopolov

Third Quarter: The Forgotten Men

Federer is on the wrong side of 29, and nothing in his play so far this year suggests he’s in the same league as Djokovic and Nadal right now. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the man is taking the reduced attention and lowered expectations lying down. It was only last month that he declared to a head-shaking, disbelieving world that he still had it in him to regain the No.1 ranking, and he continues, in almost all his press conferences, to express his willingness to rise up to the challenge of his younger rivals and give them a run for their money. The problem for Federer is that his body isn’t quite showing signs of keeping up with his mind. Is this the tournament where his out-of-the-world streak of 27 consecutive Major quarterfinals comes to an end?

Federer is not the only forgotten man here. Two outrageously talented Frenchmen who no longer seem capable of getting anyone excited about their prospects, Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, find themselves in this quarter. So do Sergiy Stakhovsky and Kei Nishikori, the once highly-touted juniors who have turned into journeymen, and Stanislas Wawrinka, the forgotten countryman of the forgotten Swiss. And then there’s David Ferrer, the man who, despite possessing a game tailor-made for clay, simply doesn’t enter anyone’s consciousness when they think about potential French Open champions. Let’s just say that if this quarter does produce the eventual champion, it will be a rude reminder for a lot of people that a good man can’t be kept down for too long.

Prediction: Ferrer def. Federer

Dark horse: Kei Nishikori

Fourth Quarter: The Center of Attention

I’m guessing this is the quarter that will garner most of the attention in the first week. It seems everyone wants Djokovic to come through his section of the draw unscathed and keep his date with Nadal in the final. And it’s not like everyone is rooting for Djokovic to topple Nadal and end his undisputed dominion on clay – it’s more that everyone wants to see exactly how earth-shattering a contest the two will produce if the French Open trophy is on the line. Djokovic, he of the 39-match winning streak, is playing at a level that hasn’t been seen since Federer’s run in 2006, and he still isn’t the definitive favorite to win the tournament. That should tell you how much of a barn-burner a Nadal-Djokovic final might turn out to be.

Novak Djokovic

But before Djokovic gets there, he might have to get past the likes of Tomas Berdych, Thomaz Belluci / Richard Gasquet and, most worryingly of all, Juan Martin Del Potro. The Argentine is making a comeback from yet another injury-induced break, and he may have had the worst luck of all players in the tournament to have drawn Djokovic in the 3^rd round. Of course, a player would need a lot more than luck to defeat Djokovic playing at such a ridiculously high level.

Prediction: Djokovic def. Tomas Berdych

Dark horse: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Semifinals

Semifinal 1: Murray did take a set off Nadal when they squared off in the Monte Carlo semis, but it’s hard to imagine Nadal being as generous at his beloved Roland Garros. Murray simply doesn’t have the weapons to bruise Nadal on clay, and anything other than a routine straight-setter would be a major accomplishment for the Scot.

Prediction: Nadal def. Murray

Semifinal 2: Ferrer can be scrappy, Ferrer can run all day long, and Ferrer can get under your skin with his unyielding defense. None of that will faze Djokovic, who has shown an otherworldly calm in the face of pressure this year. He no longer gets frustrated when his seeming winners come back with interest, and he no longer gets impatient when he’s made to run all around the court for hours together. This might be the most entertaining match of the tournament before the final, but it won’t stop Djokovic from posting an ultimately comfortable victory.

Prediction: Djokovic def. Ferrer

Final: There was only one question all along – Nadal or Djokovic? I was tempted to go with Nadal, as we always will be when it comes to clay, but Djokovic has shown too far too much improvement in every single area of his game for us to ignore his intentions any longer. The man wants to be the best in the world, he wants that No. 1 ranking, and he wants to join the ‘all-time great’ league of Federer and Nadal. Roland Garros is the one place where he can do all of those things in the most emphatic manner possible.

Champion: Novak Djokovic