Players are inching closer to the end of the year’s clay-court Grand Slam, and most bets are on Rafael Nadal to win the French Open and finally seal his ‘La Decima’ this year. We’re already at the quarter-final stage, with the first set of quarters to be played with the tournament’s two biggest favourites to take centrestage first.
How do the quarter-finals stack up? Here’s a look:
Rafael Nadal vs Pablo Carreno Busta
This all-Spanish clash is hotly anticipated – largely for the fact that Rafael Nadal is the favourite to win the French Open this year, and it’s not hard to see why. The fourth seed has won the tournament on nine occasions and is going now for a record-extending tenth, dubbed by fans as his ‘La Decima’ – fitting considering Real Madrid are his favourite club.
The clash looks like it will be quite one-sided; Carreno Busta has never beaten Nadal in any of their past three meetings – and his only tough fight against the Spaniard was on hard courts, at Doha last year.
Nadal and Carreno Busta, who are friends, have been doubles partners in the past – as recently as late 2016, when they won the title at the 2016 China Open, and will know each other’s games well.
Carreno Busta facilitated the exits of two seeded players – #11 Grigor Dimitrov and #5 Milos Raonic from the tournament, but neither player has been particularly stellar on clay or in any raring form of late. Clashing against Nadal on clay is an acid test for any player, and it’s one that Nadal – who is yet to drop a set at the French Open – will very likely ace, and quickly.
Prediction: Nadal to win in straight sets
Novak Djokovic vs Dominic Thiem
The second quarter-final clash here will be contested against recent rivals Dominic Thiem and Novak Djokovic. The two faced off at the semi-finals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia immediately after Thiem knocked title favourite Rafael Nadal out of the tournament.
Thiem has been in brilliant form this season, winning the singles title at Rio de Janeiro on clay this year. Six of his eight Tour-level titles are on clay, which should prove how good he is on that surface. But Novak Djokovic is successful on every single surface going – clay included, and despite not having won the French Open until 2016, has one of the best clay court records in tennis.
Given Thiem has never beaten Djokovic in the five matches they have played against each other, this might not be expected to go down to the wire. But Thiem has beaten an in-form Nadal, and could pull an ace out.
The two met at the semi-finals at Roland Garros last year, with Djokovic thundering through to the finals to eventually win the title. Djokovic has also enjoyed a return (although not a full one) to his form of old lately, and has displayed some of his trademark fighting spirit again – which does not spell good news for Dominic Thiem.
Prediction: Novak Djokovic to win in four sets
Andy Murray vs Kei Nishikori
World No. 1 Andy Murray has not really been in the form that secured him the top rank last year, but he has appeared to be limping back to shape. Murray has suffered a number of ailments in the past few months – shingles, the flu, an ankle injury and more while trying to defend a significant number of points.
That has likely taken as much of a toll mentally on the Scot as it has physically, and unlike the other top players, Murray has not taken a hiatus or break of any sort from the sport.
Although he has had very early exits at a number of tournaments this year – among them his Australian Open exit, the World No. 1 has appeared to be regaining a lot of his mental fortitude. His game is still not back to its 100% – as evinced by a couple of his performances already, but he is mentally tuned into the Slam and fighting opponents with his signature resilience, a mark of his game over the years.
Murray’s feistiness could overcome the physical shortcomings in his current game here.
Nishikori has defeated Murray in only two of the pair’s 10 matches so far, but outlasted the Scot in a mammoth five setter at the US Open last year – one of Nishikori’s career-best performances. They have only played each other once on clay, with Murray taking a simple straight sets win at the time.
The Japanese World No. 9 has looked a bit tired and absent from his matches, and yesterday even got bageled in set 1 by his rival, Fernando Verdasco, but mounted an unexpected – and quite brilliant – comeback to take that match in four sets – proving he still has the firepower, both mentally and physically, to return to in-form players.
That said, Nishikori has struggled with injuries all his career – something that has continued this year; he is no slouch on clay, winning the Barcelona Open twice in the past – but this year was forced to withdraw with an injured wrist.
With Murray still not at his top level and Nishikori left with some fuel in the tank, we don’t think this will necessary be an edge-of-the-seat match, but it will definitely be well-fought.
Prediction: Andy Murray to win in four sets
Stan Wawrinka vs Marin Cilic
World No. 3 Stan Wawrinka faced quite the initial challenge from mercurial Frenchman Gael Monfils in his pre-quarter match, before the flighty Monfils lost steam in the final set. 2015 French Open champion Wawrinka defeated a dominant Novak Djokovic for his title then, and he’s no stranger to holding his own at tournaments.
Cilic, who has maintained his rank and fair form over the past year, has not really been in knock-out form as Wawrinka has, with the Swiss ace taking his third Grand Slam title at the 2016 US Open – again, over Novak Djokovic.
Wawrinka also made the finals at Indian Wells this year, and unlike most other players on the tour has had no struggles with injuries, consistency, or perhaps the most important of them all, confidence. With a number of top players suffering serious burnout, Wawrinka has maintained his confidence and self-belief – and that has gone a long way in ensuring his sustained level of gameplay.
The World No. 3 has defeated Cilic 11 of the 13 times the two have played each other, and the Croatian player has never been the victor on clay.
It has also been seven years since Cilic beat Wawrinka professionally; the pair most recently played each other at the ATP World Tour Finals last year, with Wawrinka winning in straight sets (both of which went to tiebreak).
A former US Open champion himself, Cilic no doubt has built up some momentum off his French Open run – but has had a relatively simple draw to his ranking and prowess, while Wawrinka has faced a more difficult tier of opponents along the way.
Neither player has dropped a set at the Open so far but given the surface and the players’ performances this season, this match will likely go to Wawrinka, even if there are tiebreaks involved.
Prediction: Stan Wawrinka to win in straight sets (with tiebreaks)
