French Open 2024: Is it Carlos Alcaraz's title to lose?

The draw of the French Open (May 26-June 9) was unveiled on May 23. While 14-time champion Rafael Nadal has been handed a tough opener against reigning Italian Open champion Alexander Zverev, his compatriot Carlos Alcaraz has fewer reasons to complain.

Alcaraz had reached the semifinal at Roland Garros last year before losing to Novak Djokovic, as the young Spaniard had to limp through the last two sets in that match owing to cramps. The 21-year-old will definitely hope for a better fortune this time around.

Carlos Alcaraz has been handed a decent draw

Alcaraz, who had skipped the Italian Open after failing to defend his crown in Madrid, has been handed a decent enough draw. He will play his first-round match against a qualifier or a lucky loser. He has been drawn alongside Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev and Ben Shelton in the same half.

Alcaraz might play against Jack Draper of Great Britain in the second round and then against Sebastian Korda or Emile Ruusuvuori in the third. Neither of those players should pose a serious threat to the Spaniard. He could then face Ben Shelton in the fourth round, who hits the ball big, but is not at his best on clay.

That means that he will avoid either Djokovic or Nadal until the final at least. While Djokovic himself has had a decent draw, Nadal should find it considerably difficult to make a deep run into the tournament.

The Serb has Nadal, Zverev and Daniil Medvedev on his side of the draw and might face a tricky third-round opponent in the form of Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti. However, Djokovic should be able to reach the semifinals of the tournament at least all things considered.

In comparison, Alcaraz will have younger opponents to deal with. He might face Tsitsipas or Rublev in the quarterfinal before taking on his arch-rival, Sinner in the semifinal. Should he manage to win those matches, he might take on Djokovic in the summit clash.

Can Carlos Alcaraz win his first title at Roland Garros?

The Spaniard had a very good chance last year itself, but an unlucky injury stood between him and a place in the final. However, he has not played much tennis on clay courts this year, having skipped both Monte-Carlo Masters and Italian Open.

He lost to Rublev in the quarterfinal of the Madrid Open, which means that he has not been able to win any title since his triumph at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells last March. Therefore, his form has not been very good of late, as he has often found himself under pressure against big ballstrikers.

Still, only Tsitsipas seems to have a realistic chance of beating him at Roland Garros from his half of the draw. Rublev prevailed in the faster conditions in Madrid, but will find it very difficult to hit through Alcaraz should the two meet again in Paris.

Sinner is not very comfortable playing on clay and might find it difficult to reach the semifinal. The same goes for Hurkacz, whose big-serving game does not give him a very good chance of the slow surface at Roland Garros.

Hence, Tsitsipas is the only player Alcaraz should really worry about until the latter gets into the final. The Greek, too, has a vulnerable backhand that cane be exploited by the Spaniard should the two meet.

Therefore, it might once again be down to a Alcaraz-Djokovic clash in the final, like it was at last year’s Wimbledon. The Serb is going through a lean patch himself and that might present the Spaniard with a great chance to win his first Major on clay. Nadal will always be a threat as long as he is fit, but, at nearly 38, he seems to have left his best years behind him.