How Aryna Sabalenka has made herself the new French Open favourite over Iga Swiatek & Coco Gauff

Aryna Sabalenka established herself in the world of tennis primarily as a player who is a dominant force on quicker surfaces such as hard courts. While that’s still true, the Belarusian has since improved significantly on other surfaces as well—including clay, where she has now won a couple of trophies.

The most recent one came at the Madrid Masters, a tournament she had previously won, but this year she did it again.

It came after she beat Coco Gauff in the final, a player who, among other things, had smashed Iga Swiatek earlier in the event. By beating Gauff, Sabalenka once again proved that, right now, she is the player playing the best tennis—and by extension, she should be considered the favourite for Roland Garros.

Aryna Sabalenka's Madrid Masters win wasn’t by chance, because she had won that event in the past. It’s a pretty unique clay event, played at altitude, and the ball flies quicker than usual, making it behave less like traditional clay. It’s faster and more suitable to someone who plays like Sabalenka.

Even so, the Belarusian has been so good lately that we can consider her the favourite in Paris. Let’s break down why. Sabalenka made the Roland Garros semi-final in 2023 and could have made the final easily. She was only one game away and, in many ways, should have made the final—so it’s not a question of whether she can play well in Paris. We know she can.

Last year was a bit less impressive because she was beaten by Mirra Andreeva in a match where she wasn’t feeling well, which caused her loss. Provided that something similar doesn't happen this year there is no reason to think that Sabalenka couldn't go all the way.

On top of that, we have to note that no player has played as well as Aryna Sabalenka has recently. This is the fourth event in a row where Sabalenka has played and made the final. She didn’t win all of them—because she was beaten in the Indian Wells final (after winning the opening set) and in the Stuttgart final—but she still made four finals in a row.

That sort of consistency is precisely what is needed to win a Grand Slam, and Sabalenka has demonstrated it for a while with no other players really coming close to it.

Aryna Sabalenka Is Best Among Peers

Aryna Sabalenka (R) and Coco Gauff at the Mutua Madrid Open - Day Twelve - Source: Getty

Winning a Grand Slam event comes down to two things. The first, and more important bit, is the level of tennis the player produces. Aryna Sabalenka has that one covered. We broke it down above—how she’s been very good recently and quite consistent too so there shouldn't be any issues regarding that.

The second part of the equation, the one that is less controlled, is how the rest of the field will play. Now that’s another reason why Sabalenka should be viewed as the favourite here, because the rest haven’t been looking very good.

Coco Gauff had a really strong Madrid Masters campaign where she showed a really high level, but the American hasn’t been very consistent, and it’s not known whether that burst of performance can be trusted long-term. Iga Swiatek has been in a funk for a very long time, and it doesn’t seem like she is getting out of that anytime soon. She does not look like a contender right now.

Mirra Andreeva technically looks like the player most likely to trouble Aryna Sabalenka—not only because she has bested her in Paris before, but also because the Russian has been really good this year, winning a couple of big trophies.

The rest of the field doesn’t look like they could seriously trouble Sabalenka, even though there are some really good players there. So even if some of them step up and perform at a high level, it doesn’t seem likely that they will be able to outplay Sabalenka over the course of a best-of-three match.

So we have a player who has been the best in tennis for a while. She’s been very consistent recently and has shown an ability to overcome various types of adversity. And on top of that, there isn’t any player who has looked as strong as she has recently.

Sure, clay is not Aryna Sabalenka's favourite. It’s never been her favourite, and it will never be her favourite—but it doesn’t matter. She’s too good not to overcome that hurdle, and that’s why she’s our favourite to win the French Open.