Indian Wells 2021: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegula preview, head-to-head & prediction | BNP Paribas Open

Match details

Fixture: (4) Elina Svitolina vs (19) Jessica Pegula

Date: 12 October 2021

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open

Round: Fourth round (Round of 16)

Venue: Indian Wells, USA

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hardcourt

Prize money: $8,761,725

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel & ESPN | UK - Amazon Prime Video

Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegula preview

Fourth seed Elina Svitolina moved into the fourth round of the 2021 BNP Paribas Open with a hard-fought 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (3) win over Sorana Cirstea on Sunday. She will next face home favorite Jessica Pegula, who stormed past Jasmine Paolini 6-4, 6-1 in a mere 58 minutes.

Things began well for Svitolina in the third-round match, as she broke Cirstea to lead 4-3. However, a flurry of winners from the Romanian's racket saw her win three games in a row to pocket the first set.

Svitolina struggled to find her rhythm for large parts of the match but was eventually able to register her 10th come-from-behind win this season. In fact, the Ukrainian had to stage another comeback in the deciding set, rallying from 2-4 down to take the match to a deciding tiebreaker.

There, Svitolina upped her game to build a 5-2 lead for herself, after which she had no difficulties in closing out a third straight win over Cirstea.

Both players broke each other four times, but Cirstea created 16 break point opportunities whereas Svitolina could only create five. Things could have ended quite differently in this match if the Romanian had been more clutch.

Jessica Pegula, meanwhile, gave no chance whatsoever to Jasmine Paolini, who struggled against the American's powerful game. Pegula is into the fourth round at Indian Wells for the first time in her career, and is yet to drop a set this year.

The 27-year-old won a whopping 75% of her service points, which is impressive given the courts at Indian Wells are among the slowest on tour. Pegula also won more than half of the points in her return games, choking the Italian in all aspects.

Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegula head-to-head

Jessica Pegula accounted for Elina Svitolina at the Australian Open

The head-to-head between Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina is currently tied at 1-1. Both of their meetings took place in 2021, with Svitolina beating the American in straight sets at Abu Dhabi.

Pegula, however, defeated the Ukrainian at the Australian Open, winning 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.

Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegula prediction

While Elina Svitolina is the favorite on paper, Jessica Pegula's form so far at Indian Wells gives her a slight edge in this matchup. Both players have top-notch defensive skills, and that will come in handy given how slow the surface is.

The American has that extra bit of power in her groundstrokes, so she might be able to outhit the Ukrainian from the baseline. But aggression usually leads to more unforced errors, so Pegula will have to be measured with her groundstrokes or else Svitolina will make her pay.

Prediction: Jessica Pegula to win in three sets.