Indian Wells 2024 Final: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari preview, head-to-head & prediction | BNP Paribas Open

Maria Sakkari and Iga Swiatek will square off the title.
Maria Sakkari and Iga Swiatek will square off the title.

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Iga Swiatek vs (9) Maria Sakkari

Date: March 17

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open

Round: Final

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, US

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize Money: $8,995,555

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari preview

World no. 1 Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari will square off in the Indian Wells women’s singles final on Sunday (March 17).

Swiatek, the top seed at this year’s tournament, has been at her ruthless best all fortnight. She is yet to drop a set despite taking on quality opponents in the form of Marta Kostyuk, Danielle Collins and Linda Noskova — who had stunned her at the Australian Open.

The run here in Indian Wells has seen the Pole improve her season’s win-loss to 19-2, which includes a title run in Doha.

Maria Sakkari beat Coco Gauff in the semifinals.
Maria Sakkari beat Coco Gauff in the semifinals.

Sakkari, meanwhile, hs managed to end her slump by making it to her first final since Guadalajara last year. The Greek, who was at the risk of falling out of the top-10, has done well to one up her performance from last year.

Wins over Caroline Garcia and Emma Navarro bolstered her confidence and while she faced a few hurdles in the semifinal against Coco Gauff, Sakkari looked at her vintage best at time in her last match.


Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari head-to-head

Sakkari leads Swiatek in their current head-to-head stands at 3-2, but it is the Polve who has won their last two encounters.


Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Iga Swiatek+450-1.5 (-165)
Maria Sakkari-350+1.5 (+120)

All odds sourced from BETMGM ( remaining odds will be added once they're available)


Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari prediction

Swiatek will be the favorite to win on paper.
Swiatek will be the favorite to win on paper.

Their overall head-to-head notwithstanding, Iga Swiatek will come into the contest as the firm favorite on paper. Maria Sakkari has troubled the Pole in the past, but her back-to-back wins over the Greek show that she has finally found the trick to get over the line against her.

To add to that, Swiatek’s form in Indian Wells makes her a menacing opponent for anyone. The Pole has been killing in her return games, having secured a whopping 29 breaks of serve in her matches so far — averaging well over 50% second serve return points winning percentage.

Given the very attackable nature of Sakkari’s second serve, she finds herself in trouble. To her credit though, the Greek has fended off a vast majority of her break points. She, however, has been wasteful with own opportunities as well, squandering 11 breakpoints in her last match alone.

Those sort of conversion rates will not be good enough against some like Swiatek, whose heavy forehand and baseline prowess are likely to prove a bit much for Sakkari.

Prediction: Swiatek to win in straight sets

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