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Match details
Fixture: (3) Aryna Sabalenka vs (13) Jessica Pegula.
Date: 12 May 2022
Tournament: Italian Open 2022.
Round: Third round (Round of 16).
Venue: Rome, Italy.
Category: WTA 1000.
Surface: Clay.
Prize money: €2,527,250.
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula preview
Third seed Aryna Sabalenka will take on World No. 11 Jessica Pegula in the third round of the 2022 Italian Open on Thursday.
After a runner-up finish at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart, Sabalenka would've fancied her chances at the Madrid Open, where she was the defending champion. However, she was pitted against Amanda Anisimova, a player she had lost all three of her previous matches to. Sabalenka's miserable record against the American continued as she lost 6-2, 3-6, 6-4.
After a first-round bye at the Italian Open, Sabalenka took on Zhang Shuai in the second round. She played her best match of the year so far to completely outclass her opponent and win 6-2, 6-0 in under an hour.
Jessica Pegula recently achieved the best result of her singles career with a runner-up finish at last week's Madrid Open. She defeated players like 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu, 2021 Canadian Open winner Camila Giorgi and Kaia Kanepi to reach the final. However, Ons Jabeur defeated the American 7-5, 0-6, 6-2 to win her maiden WTA 1000 title.
Pegula kicked off her Italian Open campaign with a hard-fought 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over Liudmilla Samsonova. She was scheduled to face Anhelina Kalinina in the second round, but the Ukrainian withdrew due to an upper back injury, giving Pegula a walkover into the next round.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula head-to-head
The two have faced off thrice before, with Sabalenka leading the head-to-head 2-1. She won their most recent encounter at the 2021 Madrid Open in straight sets. Both of the Belarusian's wins against Pegula have come on clay.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula odds
All odds are sourced from BetMGM.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula prediction
While Sabalenka does have a winning record against Pegula, the American has been more consistent this year and has momentum on her side.
Sabalenka's poor results this year can be attributed to her serving woes. However, her serve was firing on all cylinders during her second-round win in Rome, with Sabalenka serving six aces and a single double fault. She also won 80% of the points on first serve.
Pegula, meanwhile, got off to a slow start in her opening round against Samsonova, but regrouped rather quickly to stage a comeback win after losing the first set. The American was a quarterfinalist in Rome last year and her recent run in Madrid will have her brimming with confidence.
While Pegula hits her groundstrokes with considerable power, it still pales in comparison to Sabalenka's. The Belarusian is one of the hardest hitters on tour, often overwhelming her opponents with her raw power. However, her aggressive brand of tennis often leads to unforced errors, which has cost her several matches.
If Sabalenka's serving woes return, her game will be at risk of falling apart. Getting past Pegula, who's relatively competent in all aspects, will be tough if the Belarusian isn't at her best.
Pegula's consistent results and recent form point to her winning this contest.
Pick: Jessica Pegula to win in three sets.
