Italian Open 2022: Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (3) Rafael Nadal vs (13) Denis Shapovalov

Date: 12 May 2022

Tournament: Italian Open 2022.

Round: Third round (Round of 16).

Venue: Rome, Italy.

Category: ATP Masters 1000.

Surface: Clay.

Prize money: €5,415,410.

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video | India - Voot & Sports 18.

Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov preview

Rafael Nadal will look to get his fifth win over Shapovalov

Third seed Rafael Nadal will take on 13th seed Denis Shapovalov in the third round of the Italian Open on Thursday.

The Spaniard has enjoyed an impressive 2022 season so far, winning 23 out of 25 matches. Nadal started by winning the Melbourne Summer Set without dropping a single set. After this, he won a record 21st Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, beating Daniil Medvedev in the final.

Nadal's third title of the season came at the Mexican Open, where he beat the Russian and a trio of Americans to reach the final. He beat Cameron Norrie 6-4, 6-4 in the title clash. The Spaniard did not drop a single set in the competition.

Nadal then reached the final of the Indian Wells Masters but lost to Taylor Fritz. He suffered a rib stress fracture during the competition and was sidelined for over a month, missing the Monte-Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open.

Nadal returned to action at the Madrid Open and reached the quarterfinals following wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and David Goffin. He was then beaten by compatriot Carlos Alcaraz in three sets.

Nadal is seeded third at the Italian Open and thus, received a bye to the second round, where he faced John Isner. The 35-year-old beat the American 6-3, 6-1 to book his place in the last 16 of the tournament.

Shapovalov, meanwhile, has won 15 out of 23 matches so far this season. The Canadian started brilliantly by helping Canada win the ATP Cup. He then reached his third Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open before losing to Nadal in five sets.

Shapovalov's performances dropped off following his exploits Down Under, losing his first-round match to Jiri Lehecka in the Rotterdam Open. The 23-year-old then suffered a quarterfinal exit at the Qatar Open after being beaten by lower-ranked Arthur Rinderknech.

Shapovalov reached the semifinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships, where he lost to qualifier Jiri Vesely. He then exited the Indian Wells Masters in the third round and the Miami Masters in the second round. The Canadian reached the last 16 of the Madrid Open but lost to Andy Murray in three sets.

Shapovalov is the 13th seed at the Italian Open and he started the tournament with a hard-fought win over Lorenzo Sonego. The 23-year-old then beat Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-4, 7-6(5) to book his place in the last 16 of the competition.

Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov head-to-head

This will be the sixth meeting between the two, with Nadal leading the head-to-head 4-1. Shapovalov beat the King of Clay in their first meeting, which came in the last 16 of the Canadian Open in 2017. Nadal won the next four matches.

The winner of the match will take on either Casper Ruud or Jenson Brooksby in the quarterfinals of the Italian Open.

Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov odds

Player Name	Moneyline
Rafael Nadal	-800
Denis Shapovalov	+500

All odds are sourced from Oddschecker.

Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov prediction

Nadal will enter the match as the heavy favorite to win but Shapovalov should not be written off. The Canadian does not have the best record on clay with 27 wins out of 48 matches on the surface.

However, he has shown flashes of his potential on the surface, reaching the semifinals of the Madrid Open and the Italian Open in 2018 and 2020 respectively. He nearly beat Nadal in Rome last year, having had two match points. He nearly beat Nadal in Rome last year, having had two match points in the decider.

After shaking off the rust at the Madrid Open, Nadal looked in good shape in in his win against Isner. While Shapovalov will be a tougher opponent than the American, Nadal has enough weapons in his arsenal to get the better of the Canadian.

Shapovalov has a strong serve but is prone to double faulting, having coughed up seven in his first match and four in his previous match.

Nadal's top-spin-heavy forehand will cause a lot of damage to Shapovalov in crosscourt exchanges and should be able to get the better of the Canadian and reach the quarterfinals of the Italian Open.

Pick: Nadal to win in straight sets.