Italian Open 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick

Carlos Alcaraz (L) vs Karen Khachanov (R) preview, (Source: Getty Images)
Carlos Alcaraz (L) vs Karen Khachanov (R) preview, (Source: Getty Images)

Match Details

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Fixture: (3) Carlos Alcaraz vs (23) Karen Khachanov

Date: May 13, 2025

Tournament: Italian Open 2025

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €8,055,385

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov preview

In Picture: Carlos Alcaraz (Getty)
In Picture: Carlos Alcaraz (Getty)

Third seed Carlos Alcaraz will look to keep his 2025 Italian Open campaign on track as he takes on 23rd seed Karen Khachanov in the fourth round on Tuesday, May 13. Alcaraz had his first title of the year when he won the ABN Amro Open in Rotterdam, winning 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 against Alex de Minaur in the final.

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Following disappointing losses in Indian Wells and Miami, Alcaraz started his clay-court season in style, winning the Monte-Carlo Masters with a 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 win over Lorenzo Musetti in the final. He reached successive finals on the surface in Barcelona, but lost 6-7(6), 2-6 to Holger Rune. At the Italian Open, he received a bye in the first round and then won 6-3, 6-3 against Dusan Lajovic in the second round, followed by a 7-6(2), 6-2 win over Laslo Djere in the third round.

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Khachanov's 2025 season has been average, as the Russian player has won only 11 of the 21 matches he has played. He faced third-round exits at the Australian Open, the BNP Paribas Open, the Miami Open, and the Madrid Open.

However, Khachanov had a good Barcelona Open, as he lost 3-6, 2-6 against the eventual champion Holger Rune in the semifinals. At the Italian Open, he received a bye in the opening round and opened his campaign with a 6-4, 5-7, 6-1 win over Roman Andres Burruchaga in the second round. He then won 6-3, 6-0 against local favorite Francesco Passaro to make his second fourth-round appearance this season.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov head-to-head

Alcaraz has a 4-0 head-to-head record against Khachanov. He won the last match 7-5, 6-2 at the China Open last year.


Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov odds

Player NameMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Carlos Alcaraz-700TBDTBD
Karen Khachanov+450TBDTBD
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(Odds sourced from BetMGM)


Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov prediction

In his previous match against Djere, Alcaraz won 67 percent of his service points and 44 percent of his return points. The Spaniard did look vulnerable on his serve, being broken twice in the opening set. However, his return game was good, and his composure during the pressure points helped him break his opponent's serve four times.

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In his previous round against Passaro, Khachanov won 68 percent of his service points and 66 percent of his return points. The Russian won 78 percent of the second-serve points, enabling him to convert all six of his break-point opportunities.

Alcaraz needs to shore up his serving numbers against an effective returner like Khachanov, while the Russian will look to attack the Spaniard's second serve. However, given the current form of both players and the head-to-head, Alcaraz is the favorite to win.

Pick- Alcaraz to win in straight sets

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Edited by Parag Jain
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