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Match Details
Fixture: (3) Carlos Alcaraz vs (8) Lorenzo Musetti
Date: May 16, 2025
Tournament: Italian Open 2025
Round: Semifinal
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: ATP 1000
Surface: Outdoor clay
Prize money: €8,055,385
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti preview
One of the semifinals at the 2025 Italian Open will see third seed Carlos Alcaraz face off against eighth seed and home favorite Lorenzo Musetti.
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Alcaraz has a 28-5 win/loss record this year, having won two titles from three finals. He won titles in Rotterdam and Monte-Carlo and also reached the final in Barcelona, losing 6-7 (6), 2-6 against Holger Rune.
After receiving a first-round bye, Alcaraz began his journey at the Foro Italico this year with a 6-3, 6-3 win over Serbian qualifier Dusan Lajovic. He took on another Serbian in Laslo Djere in the next round, winning 7-6 (2), 6-2. In his toughest match at Rome this year, Alcaraz overcame the twenty-third seed Karen Khachanov 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 in the fourth round and reached the quarterfinals.
The win over Khachanov helped Alcaraz to complete the set of reaching the last-eight at every Masters 1000 event on the Tour. In the quarterfinal, he put together another impressive performance against fifth seed and Indian Wells champion Jack Draper, winning 6-4, 6-4 to reach his fifth semifinal of 2025.
Meanwhile. after a modest start to the season, which saw him reach a couple of quarterfinals in Hong Kong and Buenos Aires, Lorenzo Musetti has found a new gear in the European clay season. He reached the final in Monte-Carlo, losing 6-3, 1-6, 0-6 against Carlos Alcaraz. He also reached the semifinal in the Madrid Open, losing 3-6, 6-7 (4) against Jack Draper.
The eighth seed began his Italian Open campaign with a first-round bye and then won 6-3, 6-2 over Finnish qualifier Otto Virtanen in the second round, following which he won 6-4, 6-3 against twenty-eighth seed Brandon Nakashima in the third round. Musetti then won 7-5, 6-4 against tenth seed Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round before upsetting the second seed and defending champion, Alexander Zverev, winning 7-6 (1), 6-4 to reach his third successive clay-court semifinal.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head
The head-to-head is 4-1 in favor of Alcaraz, with the Spnaiard winning the last encounter 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 at the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters this year.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction
During the Monte-Carlo final, Alcaraz won 64 percent of the service points and 50 percent of the return points. On the other hand, Musetti won 50 and 36 percent of the service and return points, respectively. However, the Italian was physically compromised for the second and third sets in that match, and therefore, the stats do not reflect an accurate picture of the match.
In their respective previous matches, Alcaraz won 60 and 47 percent of his service and return points against Draper, while Musetti won 65 and 44 percent of his service and return points against Zverev.
Throughout the tournament, Alcaraz's serve has looked vulnerable, and Musetti has shown tremendous composure during break points, converting most of them. This upcoming match will be decided on the second-serve efficiency of both players, both during service and return games. Being the higher seed and having a positive head-to-head record, Alcaraz is the slight favorite.
Pick- Alcaraz to win in three sets
