Italian Open 2025: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (10) Daniil Medvedev vs (24) Alexei Popyrin

Date: May 11, 2024

Tournament: Italian Open 2025

Round: Third Round

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €8,055,385

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin preview

Medvedev in action at the Internazionali BNL D'Italia 2025 - Day Five - Source: Getty

Daniil Medvedev will take on Alexei Popyrin in the third round of the Italian Open.

Medvedev is working towards finding his A-game on tour. He's had a modest season so far by garnering semifinal runs in Marseille and Indian Wells. He also reached the quarterfinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships and the Madrid Open, where he lost to Casper Ruud in straight sets.

The Russian started his campaign in the Italian Open with a solid win against Cameron Norrie. He outfoxed the Brit in one hour and 32 minutes, 6-4, 6-2. Medvedev is making his sixth appearance in Rome this year.

Popyrin in action at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters - Day Six - Source: Getty

Meanwhile, Alexei Popyrin has struggled to find his rhythm this year. He's made a slow start to the season by amassing six wins from 16 matches, including a quarterfinal run in the Monte-Carlo Masters. He also reached the last 16 in Dubai but was eliminated by Marin Cilic in three sets.

The Australian entered Rome after a second-round exit in Madrid. He started his campaign with a formidable win over Carlos Taberner in the second round. Popyrin defeated the Spanish qualifier in straight sets 6-1, 7-6(4). He is making his third appearance in the Italian Open this year.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin head-to-head

Medvedev leads the head-to-head against Popyrin 3-1. The Australian won their most recent encounter in the 2024 Paris Masters.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Daniil Medvedev
Alexei Popyrin

Odds will be updated when available.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin prediction

Medvedev plays a backhand in the Internazionali BNL D'Italia 2025 - Day Five - Source: Getty

Daniil Medvedev has captured only one title on clay throughout his career, at the 2023 Italian Open. The Russian prefers to compete on hard courts but has improved his game on clay in the past few years. He's made a solid start against Norrie in the first round and won 73% of his first serve points against the Brit.

On the other hand, Popyrin caught the shutterbugs' attention with a maiden Masters 1000 crown in Canada last year. He hasn't been able to follow up with consistent results on tour and will be eager to make a valuable contribution in Rome. The Australian likes to rely on his serve and is a resilient opponent on tour.

Medvedev missed out at the Australian Open this year and will be determined to make a deep run at Roland Garros. He will need to put up a flawless performance in the third round against a high-quality opponent like Popyrin. If the Russian starts to find his range in the opening half hour and plays an offensive brand of tennis, he should be able to advance to the fourth round.

Pick: Medvedev to win in three sets.