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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (11) Tommy Paul
Date: May 16, 2025
Tournament: Italian Open 2025
Round: Semifinal
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: ATP 1000
Surface: Outdoor clay
Prize money: €8,055,385
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul preview
Top seed and home favorite Jannik Sinner will look to keep his quest for a maiden Italian Open title on when he takes on eleventh seed Tommy Paul in the semifinal. The Italian is undefeated in eleven matches in 2025, having won his third Major title at the Australian Open earlier this year. Since last year, Sinner has won 41 of his last 42 matches, with his only loss coming against Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the China Open.
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At the Italian Open, the top seed has yet to drop a set. He began his campaign with a 6-3, 6-4 win against Mariano Navone in the second round, after having received a bye in the first round. He then won 6-4, 6-2 against lucky loser Jesper de Jong in the third round and won 7-6 (2), 6-3 against the seventeenth seed Francisco Cerundolo in the fourth round.
However, Sinner's most dominant performance came against the sixth seed and recently crowned Madrid Open champion Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals. The Italian played out a perfect match, winning 6-0, 6-1 against the Norwegian, winning 55 of the 77 points in the whole match.
Meanwhile, Tommy Paul has a 21-7 win/loss record in 2025, reaching three semifinals in Adelaide, Dallas, and Houston. The American started the clay season well in Houston, where he lost 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-7 (6) against eventual champion Jenson Brooksby in the semis. He also reached the fourth round at the Madrid Open, losing 2-6, 2-6 against Jack Draper.
At the Italian Open, Paul received a bye in the opening round and began his campaign with a 6-1, 6-4 win over Roberto Bautista Agut in the second round. He then won 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-4 against nineteenth seed Tomas Machac in the third round and won 7-5, 6-3 against seventh seed Alex de Minaur in the fourth round.
In both cases, Paul reversed negative head-to-head records as he had a 0-2 record against Machac and a 0-5 record against De Minaur before those matches. He then won 7-6 (4), 6-3 against the thirtieth seed Hubert Hurkacz, to reach his fourth semifinal of the year, and second successive semifinal in Rome.
Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul head-to-head
The head-to-head is 3-1 in favor of Sinner, with the Italian winning the last encounter 7-6 (3), 7-6 (5), 6-1 at the 2024 US Open.
Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul prediction
Sinner and Paul have contested in one clay-court match so far, with the Italian winning 6-7 (4), 7-6 (4), 6-3 at the 2022 Madrid Open. In that match, Sinner won 69 and 37 percent of his service and return points, whereas for Paul, the numbers were 63 and 31 percent, respectively.
Sinner has an overall 71 percent win rate on clay courts, with his only title on the surface coming at the 2022 Croatia Open, where he won 6-7 (5), 6-1, 6-1 against Carlos Alcaraz in the final. On the other hand, Paul has yet to reach a clay-court final in his career. He did reach the semifinal in Rome last year as well, losing 3-6, 7-6 (3), 6-3 against Nicolas Jarry.
A dominant victory in the last round, partisan crowd support, and a positive head-to-head record make Sinner the undisputed favorite to win the upcoming match.
Pick- Sinner to win in straight sets.
