Jannik Sinner vs Aryna Sabalenka: Which defending champion is more likely to win the title at US Open 2025?

Anticipation for the US Open 2025 is reaching its peak, with the season's final Major set to get underway on Sunday, August 24. One of the main storylines over the next fortnight will be whether defending champions Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka can reign supreme yet again.

It has been quite some time since a player has successfully defended their singles title in New York. Roger Federer was the last man to do so, accomplishing the feat in 2008, while Serena Williams was the most recent woman to achieve this, doing so in 2014.

Sinner has a 31-4 record this year, winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon. While he squandered three championship points in the French Open final against Carlos Alcaraz, he avenged that loss in the Wimbledon final a month later. He faced the Spaniard in the Cincinnati Open final as well, though an illness forced him to retire towards the end of the first set.

Sabalenka has a 50-10 record this year, winning three titles, including the WTA 1000 titles in Miami and Madrid. Her two-year reign at the Australian Open came to an end with a three-set loss to Madison Keys in the final. She also finished as the runner-up to Coco Gauff at the French Open and went down to Amanda Anisimova in the Wimbledon semifinals. There's plenty of scar tissue for her to deal with at this point.

The US Open will be Sabalenka's last opportunity to win a Major this year, so the pressure will be on. Her title defense at the Cincinnati Open concluded in the quarterfinals. However, things change pretty quickly in tennis, and she could emerge as the queen of New York once again.

Sinner and Sabalenka have both been dominant on the court this season, but the former has been more consistent. Coupled with their ability to hold their nerves, the Italian has a better shot at successfully defending his US Open title compared to the Belarusian.

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Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka receive polar opposite draws in terms of difficulty at the US Open 2025

Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

The US Open 2025 revealed the men's and women's singles draws on Thursday, August 21. Jannik Sinner has the easier draw compared to Aryna Sabalenka. However, draws fall apart quite often. After the recent bloodbath at Wimbledon, where a host of top players lost in the first round, anything is possible.

Here's a look at their respective draws to see who they will have to fight past to get to the final. Only their first-round opponents are set in stone; the rest are based on the highest ranking/seeding per round.

Round/Player	Jannik Sinner	Aryna Sabalenka
First Round	Vit Kopriva	Rebeka Masarova
Second Round	Alexei Popyrin	Polina Kudermetova
Third Round	(27) Denis Shapovalov	(31) Leylah Fernandez
Fourth Round	(14) Tommy Paul	(15) Clara Tauson
Quarterfinal	(5) Jack Draper or (10) Lorenzo Musetti	(7) Jasmine Paolini or (9) Elena Rybakina
Semifinal	(3) Alexander Zverev or (8) Alex de Minaur	(4) Jessica Pegula or (5) Mirra Andreeva
Final	(2) Carlos Alcaraz or (7) Novak Djokovic	(2) Iga Swiatek or (3) Coco Gauff

Looking at their respective opponents, Sinner won't be tested until the quarterfinals, while Sabalenka will need to be on guard since the third round. Vit Kopriva should be an easy outing for the Italian, and Popyrin, while dangerous, has blown hot and cold this year.

Denis Shapovalov won the Los Cabos Open in July and hasn't won a match since then. If he gets to the third round, he's unlikely to pose a threat to Sinner. Tommy Paul hasn't been the same since his injury at the French Open, so even if he makes it to the fourth round, he's likely to get steamrolled by the defending champion.

Lorenzo Musetti also sustained an injury at the French Open, and his form has taken a hit since then. Jack Draper hasn't played a singles match since his second-round exit from Wimbledon due to an injury. He seemed fine during mixed doubles earlier this week, and he could give Sinner a run for his money in the quarterfinals. However, the Italian beat him in the semifinals here last year.

Alexander Zverev has been in good form over the past month and could await Sinner in the semifinals. The latter beat the former in the Australian Open final this year, and the outcome in New York could be the same.

His biggest rivals, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, are likely to be his opponents in the final. Sinner is competitive against Alcaraz, but he's dominating Djokovic these days, winning their last five matches.

After a couple of easy rounds, Sabalenka could meet Leylah Fernandez in the third round. The latter won the Citi DC Open a few weeks ago and ousted the Belarusian en route to the US Open final in 2021.

Clara Tauson, who beat Sabalenka in Dubai this season, could await the defending champion in the fourth round. Her rival Elena Rybakina could be her potential quarterfinal opponent. While the Kazakh trails their rivalry 5-7, she has gone 5-1 in their past six matches on hardcourts. However, she has never advanced beyond the third round of the US Open.

Rybakina recently beat Sabalenka in Cincinnati, and her title defense could be in jeopardy if they meet again. She may face Jessica Pegula in the semifinals, a player she beat in last year's US Open final. She also leads their head-to-head record 7-2. However, Mirra Andreeva could present a challenge, and the teenager came out on top when they met in the Indian Wells final this year.

Sabalenka will be keen to avoid Coco Gauff in the final. The latter beat the former to win her maiden Major title at the US Open 2023, and repeated the feat at this year's French Open. She rallied from a set down on both occasions as well. A final against Iga Swiatek could be competitive, though the Pole is in fine form at the moment, winning Wimbledon and the Cincinnati Open.

Sinner has more favorable match-ups, while Sabalenka has a trickier draw. With the first round set to commence on Sunday, it will be interesting to see who emerges victorious in the last Major of the year.