Madrid Masters 2023: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Sebastian Baez preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs (25) Sebastian Baez

Date: Monday, May 1

Tournament: Madrid Masters 2023

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Sebastian Baez preview

Tsitsipas is through to the third round.

Fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas locks horns with 25th seed Sebastian Baez as a place in the Madrid Masters fourth round beckons.

World No. 5 Tsitsipas came through an almighty tussle with Dominic Thiem in his opener. After dropping the first set, the Greek put on a serving clinic - sending down 39 straight first serves - to take control of the match.

In a tight decider, both players held serve, with five deuces in a pivotal 11th game on Thiem's serve before a tiebreak ensued. The Austrian led 3-1, only to drop the next four points before Tsitsipas converted his second match point for his 21st win in 27 matches this year. The Greek is now 9-4 in Madrid, having reached the final in 2019 and the semifinals last year.

Tsitsipas has had a good year overall, losing to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final and making the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals and Barcelona final last week.

Meanwhile, the 31st-ranked Baez beat Marcos Giron on his Madrid debut to improve to 12-11 on the year. He's coming off opening-round exits at Monte-Carlo and Munich after making the Estoril quarterfinals.

The 22-year-old Argentine won his first title of the season at Cordoba and also reached the quarterfinals at Rio de Janeiro and the last four at Santiago.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Sebastian Baez head-to-head

Tsitsipas leads the head-to-head 1-0, having won the pair's lone meeting in the Australian Open second round last year. They're yet to meet on clay.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Sebastian Baez odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Stefanos Tsitsipas	-550	-1.5 (-175)	Over 22.5 (-110)
Sebastian Baez	+350	+1.5 (+125)	Under 22.5 (-130)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Sebastian Baez prediction

Baez is making his Madrid debut.

Both Tsitsipas and Baez look to dominate opponents from the baseline and tend to play their best tennis on clay. However, the Greek - with his strong serve, powerful groundstrokes and elite movement - takes the edge.

Tsitsipas is coming off a tough outing against Thiem, where he won an impressive 88% of his first-serve points. He also returned well after losing the first set, while Baez had a more straightforward win over Giron in his opener.

The Greek will fancy his chances in his first claycourt meeting with Baez, having gone 7-2 on European clay. He's now 84-27 on the surface, winning four titles, while Baez is 33-19, winning two titles.

Tsitsipas hasn't won a title on clay this year but should have enough to see off his Argentine opponent.

Pick: Tsitsipas in straight sets