Madrid Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick

Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk to vie for SF spot at Madrid Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty
Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk to vie for SF spot at Madrid Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty

Match Details

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Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (24) Marta Kostyuk

Date: April 30, 2025

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open 2025

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Surface: Clay

Category: WTA 1000

Prize Money: $8,403,780

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk preview

Aryna Sabalenka retrieves a shot at the Madrid Open | Image Source: Getty
Aryna Sabalenka retrieves a shot at the Madrid Open | Image Source: Getty

Two-time champion Aryna Sabalenka will face 24th-seeded Marta Kostyuk for a place in the semifinals of the 2025 Madrid Open on Wednesday (April 30).

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Sabalenka will be eager to win a singles title on clay for the first time since her triumph at Caja Magica in 2023. The World No. 1 came up short in the Stuttgart final two weeks ago, going out to an in-form Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets. Despite her heartbreak at the WTA 500 tournament, the Belarusian has looked inspired in Madrid over the last fortnight.

Having received a first-round bye, Sabalenka overcame Russia's Anna Blinkova 6-3, 6-4 last week before being taken to three sets by Belgian veteran Elise Mertens. The 26-year-old eventually navigated past the third-round challenge by a scoreline of 3-6, 6-2, 6-1, following which she convincingly beat USA's Peyton Stearns 6-2, 6-4 to reach the quarterfinals of the 1000-level event.

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Kostyuk, meanwhile, went through an up-and-down season before arriving in Madrid, as she had dropped nine of her first 20 tour-level outings in 2025. The World No. 36 received a seeding of 24 at the tournament by virtue of her ranking more than two weeks ago.

The Ukrainian made most of this opportunity, getting enough rest before outlasting former top 10 players Emma Raducanu and Veronika Kudermetova in three sets, respectively, to reach the fourth round of the Madrid Open. She then made quick work of Russia's Anastasia Potapova, thrashing her 6-3, 6-2 to book her berth in the last eight.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk head-to-head

Sabalenka leads Kostyuk by a margin of 2-0 in their head-to-head meetings on the WTA Tour. The Belarusian defeated the Ukrainian in their lone claycourt encounter at the 2023 French Open in straightforward fashion.


Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap Bets Total Games (Over/Under)
Aryna Sabalenka
Marta Kostyuk
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(Odds will be added once available)


Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk prediction

Marta Kostyuk hits a forehand at the Madrid Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty
Marta Kostyuk hits a forehand at the Madrid Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty

Sabalenka has been getting underneath the ball well enough at this year's Madrid Open. The 5'11 big-hitter's style of play suits the medium-paced, lower-bouncing claycourts at Caja Magica, as they ensure that her opponents have a tough time tracking down her missile trajectories from both wings.

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The World No. 1, who went all the way in Madrid in 2021 and 2023, has also introduced a lot of variety in her game over the last year, which means that Kostyuk will have to stay on her toes at all times. The 22-year-old also has an aggressive style of play, albeit with a relatively lower margin than her older opponent.

While the former World No. 16 has enjoyed a good run at the 1000-level event this fortnight, she cannot possibly stand her ground against Sabalenka in cross-court rallies. In that regard, the Belarusian is the outright favorite to navigate through the Ukrainian's challenge and reach the semifinals unscathed.

Pick: Sabalenka to win in straight sets.

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Edited by Riddhiman Sarkar
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