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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (4) Coco Gauff
Date: May 3, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open
Round: Final
Venue: Park Manzanares, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Category: WTA 1000
Prize Money: $8,403,780
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff preview
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will take on World No. 4 Coco Gauff in the final of the Madrid Open 2025.
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Sabalenka commenced her quest for a third title in Madrid with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Anna Blinkova. She then beat Elise Mertens in three sets, followed by a routine win over Peyton Stearns. The Belarusian survived a tough challenge from Marta Kostyuk to prevail 7-6 (4), 7-6 (7) in the quarterfinals.
Sabalenka was up against Elina Svitolina in the semifinals, who was on an 11-match winning streak. The top seed's early break advantage was negated by her opponent in the opening set. However, she secured another break of serve to go 5-3 up and served out the set in the next game.
Sabalenka snagged a break of serve in the very first game of the second set to put herself in a commanding position. She maintained her lead until the end but faltered when it was time to close out the match. Svitolina snagged a break to make it 5-5, though the Belarusian broke back to go 6-5 up. She closed out the match in the next game for a 6-3, 7-5 win.
Gauff, meanwhile, rallied from a set down to beat Dayana Yastremska 0-6, 6-2, 7-5. She scored comfortable wins over Ann Li and Belinda Bencic in the next two rounds. She defeated Mirra Andreeva 7-5, 6-1 to set up a semifinal showdown against Iga Swiatek. The American put her best foot forward, playing her best match of the tournament to hand her opponent a 6-1, 6-1 beatdown.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff head-to-head
Gauff leads their rivalry 5-4. She won their most recent encounter at the WTA Finals 2024 in straight sets.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff odds
(Odds will be added once they're available)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff prediction
Gauff had a shaky start to her journey in Madrid. However, since staging an escape act against Yastremska, she has only improved with every match. She scored her most dominant win over Swiatek to reach her first individual final of the season (the United Cup was a team event).
Sabalenka has advanced to her fourth consecutive final of the season and sixth overall. She also became the first woman to make three straight finals in Madrid. She won the title in 2023 and was the runner-up last year. She also took home the trophy in 2021.
Gauff and Sabalenka have an extremely engrossing rivalry. Five of their nine matches have gone the distance. The Belarusian's 6-4, 6-0 win at Indian Wells in 2023 remains their only lopsided contest.
Gauff's athleticism has blunted Sabalenka's raw power in the past, though the latter has also prevailed based on that. Both have faced some challenges with their serve and forehand during the tournament, but have managed to weather the storm to make it this far in Madrid.
Sabalenka's record in Madrid could give her the upper hand as she loves the conditions here. However, every player to beat Swiatek this season and later face the Belarusian in the final has won the title. Madison Keys did it at the Australian Open, followed by Andreeva at Indian Wells and Jelena Ostapenko in Stuttgart.
Gauff certainly has the potential to continue this trend. She also steps up her game in finals, with a 9-1 record in championship rounds. Sabalenka has gone 2-3 in finals this season and 19-17 in her career. While both have played some great tennis in Madrid, the American transforms into a different player when a title is on the line, and that could tip the scales in her favor.
Pick: Coco Gauff to win in three sets.
