Madrid Open 2025: Frances Tiafoe vs Alexandre Muller preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Frances Tiafoe (L) vs Alexandre Muller (R) preview, (Sorce: Getty Images)
Frances Tiafoe (L) vs Alexandre Muller (R) preview, (Sorce: Getty Images)

Match Details

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Fixture: (16) Frances Tiafoe vs Alexandre Muller

Date: April 28, 2025

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: $8,619,262

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+


Frances Tiafoe vs Alexandre Muller preview

In Picture: Frances Tiafoe (Getty)
In Picture: Frances Tiafoe (Getty)

16th-seeded Frances Tiafoe will take on Alexandre Muller in the third round of the 2025 Madrid Open. The American has had an average season in 2025 so far, winning eleven of the twenty matches he has played. The American player has not won consecutive matches at any of the first six events he played in the year. He regained his form at the US Men's Clay-court Championships, where he reached the final, losing 4-6, 2-6 against Jenson Brooksby.

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Tiafoe did not begin the European clay-court swing on a good note, as he lost 6-3, 3-6, 3-6 against Alexei Popyrin in the second round of the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters. He also had an opening-round exit in Barcelona, losing 6-2, 5-7, 1-6 against Jaume Munar. He got an opening-round bye in Madrid and then won via retirement against Luciano Darderi in the second round.

Alexandre Muller started on an impressive note in the year, winning the Hong Kong Open, with a 2-6, 6-1, 6-3 win over Kei Nishikori in the final. He also reached the final of the Rio Open, losing 2-6, 3-6 against Sebastian Baez.

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However, apart from these two events, the Frenchman has struggled as he has had five opening-round exits in the year. He has struggled on European clay-courts as well, winning only two of the five matches before coming into Madrid. At this event, Muller began with a win via retirement against David Goffin in the first round and then secured a 6-2, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (5) win over 21st-seed Ugo Humbert.


Frances Tiafoe vs Alexandre Muller head-to-head

Tiafoe has a 1-0 head-to-head record against Muller, having won the only match against the Frenchman 6-4, 6-2 at the 2025 Mexican Open.

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Frances Tiafoe vs Alexandre Muller odds

Player NameMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Frances Tiafoe-130TBDTBD
Alexandre Muller+100TBDTBD
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(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Frances Tiafoe vs Alexandre Muller prediction

Tiafoe has reached five clay-court finals in his career, but most of his success on the surface has come at his home event in Houston. Tiafoe has reached the final in Houston three times, winning the title in 2023 with a 7-6 (1), 7-6 (6) win against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the final.

Muller has reached two clay-court finals in his career, but has lost both of them, including the Rio final earlier this year. The Frenchman had also reached the final of the Grand Prix Hassan 2 in 2023, losing 6-4, 6-7 (3), 2-6 against Roberto Carballes Baena.

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Tiafoe is the favorite to win the match, as he has a positive head-to-head against Muller and is the higher-ranked player.

Pick- Tiafoe to win in three sets.

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Edited by Anisha Chatterjee
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