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Miami Open 2021: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Hubert Hurkacz preview, head-to-head & prediction

Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Iman Guha
CONTRIBUTOR
Modified 01 Apr 2021
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Match details

Fixture: (2) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs (26) Hubert Hurkacz

Date: 1 April 2021

Tournament: Miami Open 2021

Round: Quarter-finals

Venue: Miami, Florida

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $3,340,000

Match timing: 1 pm local time, 10.30 pm IST

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Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Europsort

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Hubert Hurkacz preview

Stefanos Tsitsipas, the number two seed, has impressed in all his matches at the Miami Open 2021 so far. While his Round of 32 match against Kei Nishikori did go to a third set, Tstsipas thoroughly dominated the third.

Tsitsipas has been nearly untouchable on serve the entire tournament. The only break points he has offered so far have been the couple he did to Nishikori.

At the other end, the Greek has racked up 23 break points on his opponents' serve so far, breaking them a total of eight times combined.

Hubert Hurkacz
Hubert Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz, meanwhile, has had a significantly tougher path. Though seeded 26th, and with the same luxury as Tsitsipas of receiving a first-round bye, Hurkacz's lower seeding meant he had to go through tougher opponents from the Round of 32 onwards.

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Hurkacz had to face to (6) Denis Shapovalov in the third round and Milos Raonic (12) in the fourth. He edged past Shapovalov in a second-set tiebreak, despite having generated fewer break points (one) than his opponent (three). And he needed a final-set tiebreak to see off Raonic, having converted only one of his 11 break points in the match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Hubert Hurkacz head-to-head

Though both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hubert Hurkacz are young, they have already faced off as many as seven times on the tour. Tsitsipas leads the overall head-to-head 6-1, but on outdoor hardcourt it's much closer at 2-1.

Their first encounter was at the Next Gen Finals of 2018, played in the Fast 4 format. Interestingly, all of their matches have been on hardcourt (four of which were indoors), with the previous five having gone to a deciding set.

While the head-to-head might look lopsided, their matches have never felt that way. Rotterdam 2021 is the most recent example of that, where Tsitsipas had to battle extremely hard to get the win.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Hubert Hurkacz prediction

Let's take a look at their respective Elo ratings:

  • Hubert Hurkacz entered the tournament at Elo 1749 and his tournament adjusted Elo stands at 1779.
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas entered the tournament at Elo 1995 and his tournament adjusted Elo stands at 2027.

At their respective Elo ratings, Stefanos Tsitsipas has an 80.47% chance of winning the match. This hints at Hubert Hurkacz emerging victorious around once every five matches, which is surprisingly similar to their head-to-head record.

That said, we can expect another close match on Thursday.

Expected numbers on serve

Stefanos Tsitsipas is expected to win around 72% of his service points and Hubert Hurkacz is expected to win around 67% of his.

Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 6-4, 5-7, 6-3.

Published 31 Mar 2021, 17:39 IST
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