Canadian Open 2025: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. Ben Shelton-Frances Tiafoe QF, Alexander Zverev-Lorenzo Musetti SF

The men's singles draw of the National Bank Open in Toronto (Canadian Open) was released on Friday, July 25. The Masters 1000 tournament will kick off on July 26 and last till August 7.

Alexander Zverev has clinched the top spot in the draw and will hope to channel his 2017 form, where he clinched the title by defeating Roger Federer. He is followed by Taylor Fritz, Lorenzo Musetti, Ben Shelton, and Holger Rune, in the top five seeds of the men's draw.

Fritz and Musetti will pose a challenge for Zverev, as the pair have had very successful runs in major tournaments this year. The American defeated Zverev in the finals of the Boss Open, as well as had a deep run at Wimbledon before crumbling to Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals. On the other hand, Musetti had an incredible run on clay, qualifying for the semifinals of all three Masters tournaments on the surface as well as the French Open.

The first round matches, like Sebastian Ofner vs Reilly Opelka, Corentin Moutet vs Jenson Brooksby, Mackenzie McDonald vs David Goffin, and those of Gael Monfils, Jaume Munar, and João Fonseca, who will be facing qualifiers, are highly anticipated as they have the potential to alter the trajectory of seeded players.

The absence of strong contenders, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic from the tournament due to physical reasons, increases the unpredictability of what the result might be.

Let's take a look at what we can expect in the next two weeks:

Top Half: Alexander Zverev, Lorenzo Musetti, Holger Rune, and Daniil Medvedev make for an interesting half

Alexander Zverev photographed at the 2025 Wimbledon - Image Source: Getty

Seeded Players: Alexander Zverev (1), Lorenzo Musetti (3), Holger Rune (5), Casper Ruud (8), Daniil Medvedev (10), Karen Khachanov (11), Francisco Cerundolo (14), Tomas Machac (16), Ugo Humbert (17), Alexei Popyrin (18), Denis Shapovalov (22), Tallon Griekspoor (24), Alex Michelsen (26), Alexandre Muller (29), Nuno Borges (30), Matteo Arnaldi (32)

Dark Horse: Gael Monfils

Analysis: Alexander Zverev, who is the top seed of the tournament, features in this half of the draw and will face the winner of the match between Adam Walton and Benjamin Bonzi in the second round after a first-round bye. He had a promising start to the season, qualifying for the Australian Open finals, where he faced a disappointing loss to Jannik Sinner.

He eventually went on to win his debut edition at the BMW Open in Munich and even made it to the finals of the Boss Open this year. However, Zverev struggles with making an impact in major events, and his fluctuating form even led him to a premature exit at Wimbledon.

Alexander Zverev could face Matteo Arnaldi and João Fonseca in the third round, which may be followed by him setting up a duel with the 14th seed, Francisco Cerundolo, or the 24th seed, Tallon Griekspoor. Cerundolo could be a hurdle in the top seed's path as the former boasts a 3-0 head-to-head against him, and his most recent win against the German came in Madrid.

This half of the draw also includes Daniil Medvedev, who has proven to be a promising hardcourt player but has not been able to clinch a title on the surface since 2023. An exciting potential clash between Medvedev and Rune in the fourth round can give the tournament a new dimension altogether.

Mussetti and Ruud in the quarterfinals can make for a promising duel, which would also put Zverev in trouble in the semifinals as the Italian leads their head-to-head 3-1.

Semifinals prediction: Lorenzo Musetti def. Alexander Zverev

Bottom half: Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Andrey Rublev, and Frances Tiafoe make for strong contenders

Taylor Fritz at the Citi DC Open 2025 - Image Source: Getty

Seeded Players: Taylor Fritz (2), Ben Shelton (4), Andrey Rublev (6), Frances Tiafoe (7), Alex de Minaur (9), Jakub Mensik (12), Flavio Cobolli (13), Arthur Fils (15), Jiri Lehecka (19), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (20), Felix Auger-Aliassime (21), Stefanos Tsitsipas (23), Brandon Nakashima (25), Gabriel Diallo (27), Lorenzo Sonego (28), Cameron Norrie (31)

Dark Horse: Mackenzie McDonald

Analysis: This half of the draw expects to witness some very tight contests between the top three Americans on the tour- Fritz, Shelton, and Tiafoe. Each of them brings a certain x-factor to the table that makes it quite a difficult task to predict a clear favorite in the bunch.

Fritz, who came from a stellar grass stint, will look to channel his winning ways into the hardcourt season. He has a fairly easy draw till the semifinals stage, but there, he gets to set up a potential clash with Andrey Rublev, who has won a whopping 11 titles on hardcourts. It would be a tight match between the two, as Fritz barely takes the lead in their head-to-head, 5-4.

Shelton, on the other hand, has some very interesting potential quarterfinal matchups against Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex de Minaur, or Frances Tiafoe. However, of all three, de Minaur has more control over his movements on hardcourts and has won seven titles on the surface in his career so far.

This half of the draw also features some up-and-coming talents like Jiri Lehecka, Mensik, and Fils, who played some great tennis this season. Lehecka had a promising time on grass and qualified for the finals at Queen's Club. Mensik created history by defeating Novak Djokovic in the finals of Miami, while Fils had deep runs in Monte Carlo and Barcelona but hit a roadblock due to an injury.

Semifinals prediction: Taylor Fritz def. Ben Shelton

Canadian Open 2025: Finals Prediction

Taylor Fritz def. Lorenzo Musetti