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Rafael Nadal has been the best player on the ATP tour this year by a huge margin. With a career-best 15-0 start to the season, he's on a roll. He has won three titles so far, including his 21st Major title at the Australian Open.
Nadal is the man to beat at the Indian Wells Masters, but there are plenty of talented players he'll have to get past if he wants to win a fourth consecutive title. The Spaniard has received a first-round bye, following which his path to the crown looks like this:
Rafael Nadal's likely 2nd-round opponent - Sebastian Korda
Sebastian Korda will take on a qualifier in his first-round match and is expected to emerge victorious.
On his debut at the Australian Open this year, Korda made it to the third round. He then progressed to the quarterfinals at Delray Beach. However, he lost to Dusan Lajovic in three sets at the Mexican Open in the first round.
Against Nadal, Korda will face his toughest challenge of the season so far. While he will put up a fight, the Spaniard is likely to be too strong. The pair have met once before, with Nadal emerging victorious in a straight-sets win at the French Open in 2020.
Rafael Nadal's likely 3rd-round opponent - Dan Evans
Evans started the year on a strong note, winning all three of his ATP Cup group ties. He then made it to the semifinals in Sydney. At the Australian Open, the Brit was trounced by Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round.
Evans' woes continued during the Middle East swing as he made early exits in Dubai and Qatar. Given his current form, he's unlikely to trouble Nadal. The Spaniard won both their previous meetings in 2019.
Rafael Nadal's likely 4th-round opponent - Denis Shapovalov / Reilly Opelka
Shapovalov was instrumental in leading Canada to their maiden ATP Cup title at the start of the year. He squared off against Nadal in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and lost a closely fought match in five sets. He lost in the opening round in Rotterdam, but improved by making the quarterfinals and semifinals in Qatar and Dubai respectively.
Reilly Opelka has had a great year so far, winning the title in Dallas while making the final in Delray Beach. He also made the semifinals in Sydney. He's expected to clash with Shapovalov in the third round at Indian Wells, with the winner taking on Nadal.
Both players will pose a challenge for the former World No. 1. Nadal barely escaped against Shapovalov last time around, while Opelka's serving prowess can trouble the best. However, the Spaniard does have a positive head-to-head record against both opponents.
Rafael Nadal's likely quarter-final opponent - Casper Ruud / Nick Kyrgios / Jannik Sinner
Jannik Sinner has been extremely consistent this season. He remained undefeated in the ATP Cup and reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and in Dubai.
Ruud's injuries have prevented him from playing often this year. He won the title in Argentina and performed well in the ATP Cup. Kyrgios' form in singles is shaky at best right now, but he did win the doubles title at the Australian Open.
Sinner will likely take on either Ruud or Kyrgios in the fourth round, with the winner facing Nadal in the quarterfinals. The Spaniard has a winning record against Sinner and Kyrgios and hasn't played against Ruud just yet.
With question marks surrounding Ruud's fitness and Kyrgios' form, Sinner is likely to bother Nadal the most. The Spaniard has won each of his three encounters against Sinner, although they were all played on clay.
Rafael Nadal's likely semi-final opponent - Daniil Medvedev / Cameron Norrie / Stefanos Tsitsipas
Nadal and Medvedev are on a collision course yet again. The Spaniard has already defeated the newly-crowned World No. 1 twice this year. He bested Medvedev in the Australian Open final to win his 21st Grand Slam title.
Nadal then defeated him in the semifinals of the Mexican Open. Medvedev has played quite well this season and is an elite player on hardcourt. However, he has a poor record at the Indian Wells Masters, something he will be desperate to rectify.
Medvedev will likely have to get past Carlos Alcaraz and either defending champion Cameron Norrie or World No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas in order to reach the semifinals.
The Russian has a poor head-to-head record against Rafael Nadal, losing five of his six matches against the Spaniard, including two Grand Slam finals.
Rafael Nadal's likely opponent in the final - Andrey Rublev
Having won consecutive titles in Marseille and Dubai, Rublev is on a nine-match winning streak. He defeated Nadal in their most recent encounter on the claycourts of Monte Carlo. However, the Spaniard still leads 2-1 in the head-to-head.
If the duo meet in the final, one player's winning streak will come to an end. Both players are having exemplary seasons so far, so it'll be an exciting showdown for the title.
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