Italian Open 2025: Women's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction ft. potential Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka SF, Iga Swiatek-Madison Keys QF

The women's singles draw for the final WTA 1000 of the European clay swing, the 2025 Italian Open, has finally been unveiled. This will be the final big event before the second Grand Slam of the season, the French Open.

The draw will be headlined by the top two seeds, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. While the former has been enjoying her time on clay this year, having won the Madrid Open, the latter, who is the defending champion, is struggling to get her hands on a title for some time now, despite making deep runs at every event she plays.

Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, and Jasmine Paolini will be rounding up the Top 5 positions and look to gain some massive points in the rankings, and also momentum for the French Open. Reigning Australian Open champion Madison Keys, teenage prodigy Mirra Andreeva, and reigning Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen will all fancy their chances of bagging a huge result in Rome.

The seeded players will receive a bye into the second round, and before they jump into action, some blockbuster matches will kick things off in Rome.

Without any more delay, let's get into the possible ways in which this exciting draw can unfold.

Top Half: Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina, and Mirra Andreeva promise exciting tennis in this half

2023 Italian Open champion Elena Rybakina - Source: Getty

Seeded Players: (1) Aryna Sabalenka, (4) Coco Gauff, (7) Mirra Andreeva, (8) Zheng Qinwen, (10) Emma Navarro, (11) Elena Rybakina, (14) Daria Kasatkina, (15) Amanda Anisimova, (20) Donna Vekic, (21) Ekaterina Alexandrova, (22) Clara Tauson, (24) Leylah Fernandez, (26) Magdalena Frech, (30) Linda Noskova, (31) Sofia Kenin, (32) Magda Linette

Dark Horse: Olga Danilovic

Analysis: Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will kick off her campaign against the winner of Dayana Yastremska vs Anastasia Potapova, following which she may face a resurgent Sofia Kenin. Up next for the Belarusian from her as she could face the Filipino prodigy Alexanndra Eala, Marta Kostyuk, or Daria Kasatkina. Though the Belarusian should be able to survive comfortably till the quarterfinal.

Things should start getting tricky for the World No. 1 from here at the Italian Open, as she will likely face eighth seed Zheng Qinwen or 11th seed Elena Rybakina. Though Sabalenka has dealt with the Chinese comfortably in their previous meetings, she is well aware of the Kazakh's prowess.

The second quarter is headlined by fourth seed Coco Gauff will face either Arianna Zucchini or a qualifier in her opening match, following which she will likely face either Belinda Bencic or 32nd seed Magda Linette and either Emma Raducanu or 15th seed Amanda Anisimova in the fourth round. In the quarterfinal, Gauff should meet seventh seed Mirra Andreeva, who has been in scintillating form this year.

Given Rybakina's poor run of form, Sabalenka should emerge the winner from the first quarter, while Gauff should have a comfortable time proceeding to the semifinals and set up a rematch of the 2025 Madrid Open at the Italian Open, where the American will likely get her revenge.

Semifinal prediction: Coco Gauff def. Aryna Sabalenka

Bottom Half: Defending Italian Open champion Iga Swiatek will be challenged by Madison Keys, Jessica Pegula, Jasmine Paolini, and others

2024 Italian Open champion Iga Swiatek - Source: Getty

Seeded Players: (2) Iga Swiatek, (3) Jessica Pegula, (5) Madison Keys, (6) Jasmine Paolini, (9) Paula Badosa, (12) Karolina Muchova, (13) Diana Shnaider, (16) Elina Svitolina, (17) Jelena Ostapenko, (18) Beatriz Haddad Maia, (19) Liudmila Samsonova, (23) Yulia Putintseva, (25) Elise Mertens, (27) Ons Jabeur, (28) Anna Kalinskaya, (29) Danielle Collins

Dark Horse: McCartney Kessler

Analysis: The third quarter will be headlined by Jasmine Paolini and Jessica Pegula, both of whom have had a topsy-turvy clay swing so far. Pegula may have to fend off the likes of Diana Shnaider, Yulia Putintseva, Elise Mertens, and others. However, Pegula seems to have drawn the short end of the stick as her side features Ons Jabeur, Karolina Muchova, Jelena Ostapenko, and Petra Kvitova.

Though Pegula's draw presents her a brilliant opportunity to bounce back and make it to the quarterfinals, Muchova has been knocking on the door for a long time, and the tennis quality hasn't been an issue for her. Provided she manages to stay away from further injury struggles, Muchova may survive the threats of Pegula, Paolini, Jabeur, Ostapenko, Kvitova, and others to reach the semifinals.

Defending Italian Open champion Iga Swiatek will face either Elina Avanesyan or Elisabetta Cocciaretto to kick off her run, following which she could face her rival Danielle Collins. Surviving this would mean a potential battle against the in-form Elina Svitolina, winning which would take her to the quarterfinals.

Fifth seed Madison Keys will try to make her way to the quarterfinals by trying to eliminate the likes of Naomi Osaka, who recently won the first clay title of her career, a returning Paula Badosa, an in-form Anna Kalinskaya, and others to make it to the final 8 of the Italian Open.

The American should not have a problem, barring any unforeseen circumstances, setting up a clash with her rival. Though both Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys boast incredible firepower, on clay, it is hard to bet against the Pole, even if she is out of form.

Iga Swiatek may then take on her rival Karolina Muchova in the semifinals, in a rematch of the 2023 French Open final, and it should be yet another win for the Pole.

Semifinal prediction: Iga Swiatek def. Karolina Muchova

Italian Open 2025 final prediction:

Iga Swiatek's title drought should come to an end at the Italian Open with a statement title defense.

Iga Swiatek def. Coco Gauff